Youngstown State Penguins
Makes the tournament15%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-12
Net rating−2.0Rank 160 of 363 · offence 184, defence 127
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-12 (13 to 26 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 15%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 15%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field15%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Hiramnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 99-26 | |
| Sat 7 Nov6:30 PM ET | vs Buffalorank 255 | Home | 84% | 74-60 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov11 AM ET | at Toledorank 140 | Away | 32% | 60-66 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs BuffaloA win: 15% · a loss: 15%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at ToledoA win: 16% · a loss: 15%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erica KingG | 1 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.2 | +0.7 |
| Evelyn McKnightG | 1 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Paulina HernandezF | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | +4.1 | +2.2 |
| Jada LeonardG · transfer from Cleveland St | 1 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | +1.3 | +1.1 |
| Mia KalichF | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Hayden BarrierG | 1 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Dacia LewandowskiG | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Danielle CameronG | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +0.6 |
| Sarah BakerF | 1 | 16.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | +2.4 | +1.3 |
| Brooke AdkinsG | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −1.7 | +0.1 |
| Gemma WalkerG | 1 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −4.2 | −0.4 |
| Kaitlyn TurinskyF | 1 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −1.1 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 133 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 139 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −2.0
- Last season's net rating
- +2.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 64%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.7
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 88.5 (rank 184)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.4 (rank 127)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.4 (rank 269)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.0 | 96.3 | 87.3 | 83 |
| 2 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 88.5 | 90.4 | 160 |
| 3 | Cleveland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 88.8 | 92.1 | 181 |
| 4 | IU Indianapolis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.8 | 89.0 | 94.8 | 195 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 88.7 | 98.2 | 227 |
| 6 | Oakland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 88.2 | 97.8 | 228 |
| 7 | Northern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 85.5 | 96.9 | 244 |
| 8 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 83.6 | 96.1 | 263 |
| 9 | Milwaukee | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 85.3 | 98.1 | 265 |
| 10 | Detroit Mercy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 83.3 | 97.3 | 278 |
| 11 | Wright State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 86.6 | 100.7 | 281 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 81.8 | 100.0 | 312 |