Cleveland State Vikings
Next: at Bowling Green · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 63-70 · Game page
Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating−3.3Rank 181 of 363 · offence 180, defence 164
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (15 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 13-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 10%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field11%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Penn Staterank 132 | Away | 18% | 76-89 | W 62-61 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | at Bowling Greenrank 150 | Away | 30% | 63-70 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET | at Drakerank 117 | Away | 24% | 64-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Bowling GreenA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at DrakeA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah HurleyG | 1 | 39.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −0.6 | +1.1 |
| Chloe OliverG · transfer from Stony Brook | 1 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Paula PiqueG | 1 | 35.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 |
| Macie TaylorG · transfer from Miami OH | 1 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | +1.6 | +2.1 |
| Alexa HocevarG · transfer from Toledo | 1 | 30.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | −0.8 | +0.7 |
| Annika CorcoranG · transfer from Sam Houston | 1 | 17.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Silvia GonzalezF · transfer from G Washington | 1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.9%rank 124 | 42.6%rank 19 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.0%rank 64 | 23.0%rank 302 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.3%rank 243 | 32.9%rank 92 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.6%rank 63 | 19.8%rank 108 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.2 expected (+0.8)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.0 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 1-0
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −5.9
- Last season's net rating
- +2.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 23%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.8
- Change since preseason
- +2.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 88.7 (rank 180)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.0 (rank 164)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.6 (rank 250)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +0.9 (rank 114)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.0 | 96.3 | 87.2 | 84 |
| 2 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 88.4 | 90.3 | 161 |
| 3 | Cleveland State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −3.3 | 88.7 | 92.0 | 181 |
| 4 | IU Indianapolis | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.9 | 88.9 | 94.8 | 195 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.6 | 88.6 | 98.2 | 227 |
| 6 | Oakland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.7 | 88.1 | 97.7 | 228 |
| 7 | Northern Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 85.4 | 96.8 | 243 |
| 8 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 83.5 | 96.0 | 262 |
| 9 | Milwaukee | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 85.2 | 98.0 | 264 |
| 10 | Detroit Mercy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 83.3 | 97.3 | 278 |
| 11 | Wright State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 86.5 | 100.7 | 281 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.2 | 81.8 | 100.0 | 312 |