Northern Kentucky Norse
Next: vs Kent State · Sat 7 Nov, 11 AM ETProjected 65-70 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-22
Net rating−14.3Rank 283 of 363 · offence 296, defence 237
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-22 (5 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.4
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Defiancenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 84-49 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | at Kentuckyrank 15 | Away | 0% | 48-88 | L 28-79 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov11 AM ET | vs Kent Staterank 172 | Home | 35% | 65-70 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov11 AM ET | vs Chattanoogarank 243 | Home | 56% | 63-61 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Kent StateA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs ChattanoogaA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya LaytonG | 2 | 26.5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Sara BasaranF | 2 | 25.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | −2.9 | −0.3 |
| Kennedy YounkinF · transfer from ETSU | 2 | 24.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | −3.7 | −0.7 |
| Gaia CastelliG | 2 | 22.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Noelle HubertG | 2 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Anna HamiltonG | 2 | 21.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.5 |
| Dženifera RiekstaF | 2 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Alma RashelbachG | 2 | 16.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Caroline EaglinG | 2 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.3 |
| Ema MačkićG | 2 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Ya Ida SköldG | 2 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.7 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 41.4%rank 360 | 43.0%rank 36 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.9%rank 341 | 23.0%rank 292 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.7%rank 303 | 36.0%rank 345 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 22.9%rank 36 | 20.4%rank 134 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.0 points a game (they shot 25.7%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.5
- Last season's net rating
- −2.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 11%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.6
- Change since preseason
- −2.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.9 (rank 296)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.2 (rank 237)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.6 (rank 125)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +32.1 (rank 12)
Horizon League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay | 0-1 | 0-0 | +9.0 | 96.3 | 87.3 | 84 |
| 2 | Cleveland State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −1.7 | 90.4 | 92.2 | 157 |
| 3 | Youngstown State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.0 | 88.4 | 90.4 | 160 |
| 4 | IU Indianapolis | 1-1 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 88.6 | 96.2 | 210 |
| 5 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-1 | 0-0 | −9.5 | 88.7 | 98.2 | 229 |
| 6 | Robert Morris | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 83.5 | 95.8 | 259 |
| 7 | Oakland | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.7 | 86.2 | 98.9 | 264 |
| 8 | Detroit Mercy | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.1 | 83.3 | 97.3 | 278 |
| 9 | Wright State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.2 | 86.5 | 100.7 | 281 |
| 10 | Northern Kentucky | 1-1 | 0-0 | −14.3 | 80.9 | 95.2 | 283 |
| 11 | Milwaukee | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.5 | 85.3 | 99.8 | 285 |
| 12 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | −18.1 | 81.8 | 100.0 | 313 |