Chattanooga Mocs
Makes the tournament9%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16
Net rating−11.2Rank 241 of 363 · offence 250, defence 247
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-16 (10 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 9%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 9%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field9%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs UVA Wisenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 85-44 | |
| Wed 4 Nov | at Western Kentuckyrank 209 | Away | 43% | 62-64 | L 50-61 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Floridarank 49 | Home | 8% | 60-78 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov11 AM ET | at Northern Kentuckyrank 244 | Away | 37% | 62-67 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs FloridaA win: 8% · a loss: 9%−1 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Northern KentuckyA win: 9% · a loss: 9%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah OwonaG | 2 | 28.5 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Izzy McPhersonG | 2 | 26.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.3 |
| Gabbie GroomsG · transfer from Georgia St | 2 | 25.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Ava CardG | 2 | 25.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| TaTianna StovallF · transfer from Kennesaw St | 2 | 24.0 | 15.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| London WeaverG | 2 | 17.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.8 | −0.5 |
| Lydia LedfordG | 2 | 17.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Evie BruceG | 2 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Falon BedkeF | 2 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −3.6 | −0.3 |
| Kami WilsonG | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.2 |
| Aaliyah StoryF | 2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.8%rank 132 | 42.6%rank 20 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.1%rank 262 | 23.4%rank 259 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.3%rank 121 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.9%rank 256 | 21.9%rank 314 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +6.8 points a game (they shot 18.2%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.1
- Last season's net rating
- −5.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 50%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −5.5
- Change since preseason
- −3.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.6 (rank 250)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 95.8 (rank 247)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.3 (rank 342)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −7.7 (rank 174)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 89.3 | 90.9 | 155 |
| 2 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 87.7 | 93.3 | 194 |
| 3 | Furman | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.4 | 85.8 | 96.2 | 234 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.6 | 95.8 | 241 |
| 5 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 85.1 | 98.4 | 272 |
| 6 | Tennessee Tech | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 86.8 | 100.6 | 276 |
| 7 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.7 | 80.5 | 96.2 | 293 |
| 8 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.4 | 98.3 | 307 |
| 9 | Western Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.8 | 78.8 | 100.5 | 335 |