Samford Bulldogs

Women's · Southern Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Georgia Tech · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Samford3%97%Georgia Tech

Projected 54-81 · Game page

Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-18

Net rating−13.3Rank 272 of 363 · offence 238, defence 298

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-18 (8 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 8%
Wins the conference tournament: 7%
Average seed if in the field: 15.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field7%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Montevallonot Division I	Home	—	—	W 102-42
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Georgia Techrank 71	Away	3%	54-81	—
Mon 9 Nov12 PM ET	vs UNC Ashevillerank 351	Home	88%	72-55	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 7% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at Georgia TechA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs UNC AshevilleA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Avary BrewerG	1	28.0	3.0	3.0	6.0	−5.2	−1.5
Bailey HapeG	1	25.0	11.0	4.0	2.0	−2.5	−0.1
Carla BagudaF	1	21.0	6.0	10.0	3.0	−2.5	−0.1
Francie MorrisG	1	20.0	3.0	9.0	7.0	−1.4	+0.3
Natalie BarnesG	1	20.0	18.0	4.0	3.0	−2.3	0.0
Kayte-Madison BjornstadC	1	19.0	15.0	5.0	2.0	−2.2	0.0
Briana RiveraG	1	18.0	15.0	1.0	2.0	−2.0	+0.1
Makayla RobersonG	1	18.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	−2.3	−0.1
Kaylee YarbroughG	1	17.0	18.0	2.0	3.0	−1.1	+0.3
Sydney MartinG	1	14.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	−4.3	−0.5

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 135	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 140	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −13.3
Last season's net rating: −14.1
Last season's minutes returning: 54%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 85.0 (rank 238)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 98.3 (rank 298)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.8 (rank 315)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Southern Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	East Tennessee State	1-0	0-0	−1.6	89.3	90.8	155
2	Wofford	0-1	0-0	−5.6	87.6	93.2	194
3	Furman	1-1	0-0	−10.4	85.7	96.1	234
4	Chattanooga	1-1	0-0	−11.2	84.5	95.7	241
5	Samford	1-0	0-0	−13.3	85.0	98.3	272
6	Tennessee Tech	0-1	0-0	−13.9	86.7	100.5	276
7	UNC Greensboro	1-0	0-0	−15.7	80.4	96.1	293
8	Mercer	1-0	0-0	−17.9	80.3	98.2	307
9	Western Carolina	1-0	0-0	−21.8	78.7	100.4	336