Mercer Bears
Next: vs GA Southern · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ETProjected 61-70 · Game page
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-18
Net rating−17.9Rank 307 of 363 · offence 305, defence 296
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-18 (6 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs North Greenvillenot Division I | Home | — | — | W 69-41 | |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Georgia Southernrank 158 | Home | 26% | 61-70 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov12:30 PM ET | at Wake Forestrank 134 | Away | 7% | 54-75 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs Charleston Southernrank 340 | Home | 74% | 68-58 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Georgia SouthernA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: at Wake ForestA win: 5% · a loss: 3%+2 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Charleston SouthernA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail HoltmanG | 1 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Micah O'DellG | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −5.0 | −1.4 |
| Avani TellaG | 1 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.7 |
| Maliyah LoftonG | 1 | 23.0 | 24.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −3.4 | −0.5 |
| JahNaesia SpiersG · transfer from Memphis | 1 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −4.6 | −0.8 |
| Ada AnamekweG · transfer from Brown | 1 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Jala WilsonF | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.3 | −0.3 |
| Kimora JenkinsG | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Ariadna Pastor GustaG | 1 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −3.2 | −0.2 |
| Rachel ShropshireF · transfer from Bellarmine | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −9.1 | −1.4 |
| Kaylen KenneyF | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
| Anaiah WhiteG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 135 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 140 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −17.9
- Last season's net rating
- −11.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 23%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.5
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.3 (rank 305)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 98.2 (rank 296)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 197)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 89.3 | 90.8 | 155 |
| 2 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 87.6 | 93.2 | 194 |
| 3 | Furman | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.4 | 85.7 | 96.1 | 234 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.5 | 95.7 | 241 |
| 5 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 85.0 | 98.3 | 272 |
| 6 | Tennessee Tech | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 86.7 | 100.5 | 276 |
| 7 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.7 | 80.4 | 96.1 | 293 |
| 8 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.3 | 98.2 | 307 |
| 9 | Western Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.8 | 78.7 | 100.4 | 336 |