Western Carolina Catamounts
Next: vs Johnson · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-17
Net rating−16.9Rank 303 of 363 · offence 271, defence 333
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-17 (10 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Carolina Universitynot Division I | Home | — | — | W 96-31 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs West Floridarank 329 | Home | 51% | 66-66 | W 72-58 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Johnsonnot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET | at UNC Ashevillerank 352 | Away | 61% | 66-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 12 Nov: at UNC AshevilleA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally HollifieldG | 2 | 26.0 | 18.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| My'Asia YoungG | 2 | 25.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 | −2.0 | +0.1 |
| Kate HollifieldG · transfer from UNC Wilmington | 2 | 24.5 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −3.8 | −0.7 |
| Ellie RichardsonG | 2 | 24.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | −5.0 | −1.3 |
| Hannah MossPG | 2 | 22.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Kayla MountC · transfer from Chicago St | 2 | 17.5 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Tina BowersG | 2 | 17.0 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | −4.8 | −0.8 |
| Justice ZimmermanF | 2 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | −6.2 | −1.1 |
| Ava JarrettG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.3 | +0.1 |
| Ellie FyansF | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.2%rank 243 | 45.3%rank 251 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.4%rank 114 | 23.4%rank 255 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.1%rank 46 | 33.6%rank 232 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 222 | 20.8%rank 221 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- 0.0 points a game (they shot 28.6%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −21.8
- Last season's net rating
- −28.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 38%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.6
- Change since preseason
- +4.8
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 83.3 (rank 271)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 100.2 (rank 333)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.0 (rank 287)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −20.1 (rank 277)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Tennessee State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 90.1 | 91.2 | 149 |
| 2 | Wofford | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.7 | 87.6 | 93.3 | 190 |
| 3 | Furman | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.5 | 85.7 | 96.2 | 236 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.5 | 95.7 | 243 |
| 5 | Samford | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 85.3 | 97.4 | 253 |
| 6 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 87.2 | 99.7 | 262 |
| 7 | Mercer | 2-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 80.3 | 94.4 | 277 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 2-0 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 80.2 | 95.7 | 293 |
| 9 | Western Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | −16.9 | 83.3 | 100.2 | 303 |