UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Women's · Big South Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Georgia St · Fri 6 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

Georgia St76%24%UNC Asheville

Projected 63-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-22

Net rating−26.7Rank 351 of 363 · offence 352, defence 346

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-22 (5 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 15.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Wed 4 Nov	vs Clintonnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 83-54
Fri 6 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Georgia Staterank 229	Home	24%	63-73	—
Mon 9 Nov12 PM ET	at Samfordrank 272	Away	12%	55-72	—
Thu 12 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Western Carolinarank 336	Home	52%	63-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs Georgia StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at SamfordA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Western CarolinaA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Niyonna AsbelleG	1	31.0	8.0	9.0	5.0	−4.5	−1.3
Tre'Miyah BerryG · transfer from Alabama A&M	1	27.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	−6.0	−1.9
Jamaria FreemanG	1	25.0	16.0	5.0	6.0	−6.6	−2.0
Amaya ShawF · transfer from East Carolina	1	23.0	6.0	5.0	0.0	−3.8	−0.7
LaNicia ParkerG	1	23.0	20.0	5.0	2.0	−4.2	−0.9
Sophia RossG	1	22.0	4.0	5.0	7.0	−4.3	−0.8
Olivia JohnsonC	1	21.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	−4.3	−0.8
Dariasia PittsF · transfer from Bethune	1	18.0	12.0	4.0	2.0	−8.4	−2.1
Mercy WametF · transfer from Prairie View	1	10.0	0.0	3.0	0.0	−8.4	−1.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 135	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 140	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −26.7
Last season's net rating: −22.2
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 74.3 (rank 352)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.0 (rank 346)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.5 (rank 144)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big South Conference by rating

9 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	High Point	2-0	0-0	−6.2	87.3	93.5	198
2	Radford	1-1	0-0	−10.7	83.6	94.3	236
3	Longwood	1-0	0-0	−13.6	82.2	95.8	275
4	South Carolina Upstate	1-1	0-0	−17.8	78.5	96.3	305
5	Winthrop	1-0	0-0	−20.2	79.4	99.6	328
6	Charleston Southern	0-1	0-0	−23.0	77.0	100.0	340
7	Gardner-Webb	0-0	0-0	−23.2	77.8	101.0	341
8	UNC Asheville	1-0	0-0	−26.7	74.3	101.0	351
9	Presbyterian	0-1	0-0	−31.7	71.6	103.3	362