Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
Next: at Catawba · Thu 5 Nov, 6:30 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 11-20
Net rating−23.2Rank 341 of 363 · offence 335, defence 344
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 11-20 (5 to 17 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 6-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov6:30 PM ET | at Catawbanot Division I | Away | — | — | Live | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | vs UNC Greensbororank 293 | Home | 46% | 60-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: vs UNC GreensboroA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 133 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 139 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −23.2
- Last season's net rating
- −23.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 43%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.8
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 77.9 (rank 335)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 101.1 (rank 344)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.1 (rank 296)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big South Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High Point | 2-0 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 87.4 | 93.6 | 198 |
| 2 | Radford | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.7 | 83.7 | 94.4 | 236 |
| 3 | Longwood | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.6 | 82.2 | 95.9 | 275 |
| 4 | South Carolina Upstate | 1-1 | 0-0 | −17.8 | 78.6 | 96.3 | 305 |
| 5 | Winthrop | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.2 | 79.5 | 99.7 | 328 |
| 6 | Charleston Southern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −23.0 | 77.1 | 100.1 | 340 |
| 7 | Gardner-Webb | 0-0 | 0-0 | −23.2 | 77.9 | 101.1 | 341 |
| 8 | UNC Asheville | 1-0 | 0-0 | −26.7 | 74.4 | 101.1 | 351 |
| 9 | Presbyterian | 0-1 | 0-0 | −31.6 | 71.7 | 103.3 | 362 |