UNC Greensboro Spartans
Next: vs Columbia (SC) · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.7
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-16
Net rating−15.7Rank 293 of 363 · offence 300, defence 258
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-16 (10 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 3%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 4%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.7
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Presbyterianrank 362 | Home | 93% | 84-63 | W 58-50 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET | vs Columbia (SC)not Division I | Home | — | — | Live | |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | at Clemsonrank 54 | Away | 1% | 47-77 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | at Gardner-Webbrank 341 | Away | 54% | 62-60 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: at ClemsonA win: 3% · a loss: 4%−1 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: at Gardner-WebbA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyla MinorG | 1 | 35.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | −3.7 | −0.9 |
| Rose SimpsonG | 1 | 35.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.9 | −0.5 |
| Savannah Robinson-HolmesG · transfer from Georgia St | 1 | 34.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −3.2 | −0.6 |
| Gloria TonyG | 1 | 32.0 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | −0.4 |
| Kristina RakotobeF | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | −3.8 | −0.8 |
| Tiarna Chambers-DesmondF | 1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Joelle DavisG | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.2 |
| Laneigh ScalesF | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Sydney MurphyG | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Kyla CanteyG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.9%rank 277 | 43.4%rank 51 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.2%rank 329 | 22.6%rank 322 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.6%rank 281 | 34.3%rank 271 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.4%rank 71 | 19.3%rank 74 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.1 points a game (they shot 23.1%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −13.6
- Last season's net rating
- −13.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 18%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.4
- Change since preseason
- −2.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.5 (rank 300)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.2 (rank 258)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.4 (rank 338)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −31.6 (rank 267)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 89.3 | 90.9 | 155 |
| 2 | Wofford | 0-1 | 0-0 | −5.6 | 87.7 | 93.3 | 194 |
| 3 | Furman | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.4 | 85.8 | 96.2 | 234 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.6 | 95.8 | 241 |
| 5 | Samford | 1-0 | 0-0 | −13.3 | 85.1 | 98.4 | 272 |
| 6 | Tennessee Tech | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.8 | 86.8 | 100.6 | 276 |
| 7 | UNC Greensboro | 1-0 | 0-0 | −15.7 | 80.5 | 96.2 | 293 |
| 8 | Mercer | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.4 | 98.3 | 307 |
| 9 | Western Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −21.8 | 78.8 | 100.5 | 335 |