East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Next: vs UVA Wise · Sun 8 Nov, 4 PM ET
Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.
Makes the tournament38%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 23-9
Net rating−1.1Rank 149 of 363 · offence 159, defence 140
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 23-9 (17 to 28 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 54%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 38%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field38%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs West Floridarank 329 | Home | 72% | 67-59 | W 73-51 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | at Clemsonrank 64 | Away | 9% | 54-72 | L 57-76 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov4 PM ET | vs UVA Wisenot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | at Elonrank 192 | Away | 49% | 63-63 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at ElonA win: 39% · a loss: 38%+1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniela LopezG | 2 | 31.5 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 |
| Emmah McAmisG | 2 | 28.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −0.8 | +0.7 |
| Lucia FranceC | 2 | 27.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +0.2 | +1.1 |
| Anala NelsonG | 2 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Lucy HoodG | 2 | 20.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | −1.4 | +0.3 |
| Sydney-James DesrochesG · transfer from E Illinois | 2 | 19.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −0.4 | +0.6 |
| Alanna TatumG | 2 | 16.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Jaidyn HarperG | 1 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | +0.2 | +1.1 |
| SaBreya MonsantoG | 2 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | −0.2 | +0.4 |
| Carmen RichardsonG | 1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.2 | +0.3 |
| Yanessa BoydG | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.8 | 0.0 |
| Elsa VadforsC | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| Carleyssia WallaceF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.4%rank 228 | 46.0%rank 304 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.2%rank 23 | 23.6%rank 236 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.3%rank 145 | 33.1%rank 134 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.2%rank 304 | 18.0%rank 13 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −6.2 points a game (they shot 39.5%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.9 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −7.0
- Last season's net rating
- −9.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 76%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.8
- Change since preseason
- +5.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 90.1 (rank 159)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 91.2 (rank 140)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.5 (rank 357)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −2.9 (rank 159)
Southern Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | East Tennessee State | 1-1 | 0-0 | −1.1 | 90.1 | 91.2 | 149 |
| 2 | Wofford | 1-1 | 0-0 | −5.7 | 87.6 | 93.3 | 190 |
| 3 | Furman | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.5 | 85.7 | 96.2 | 236 |
| 4 | Chattanooga | 1-1 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.5 | 95.7 | 243 |
| 5 | Samford | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 85.3 | 97.4 | 253 |
| 6 | Tennessee Tech | 1-1 | 0-0 | −12.5 | 87.2 | 99.7 | 262 |
| 7 | Mercer | 2-0 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 80.3 | 94.4 | 277 |
| 8 | UNC Greensboro | 2-0 | 0-0 | −15.6 | 80.2 | 95.7 | 293 |
| 9 | Western Carolina | 2-0 | 0-0 | −16.9 | 83.3 | 100.2 | 303 |