Elon Phoenix

Women's · Coastal Athletic Association · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Howard · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Elon19%81%Howard

Projected 61-73 · Game page

Makes the tournament11%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-15

Net rating−5.9Rank 196 of 363 · offence 203, defence 191

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-15 (11 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-8
Wins or shares the conference title: 12%
Wins the conference tournament: 11%
Average seed if in the field: 14.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field11%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs UNC Pembrokenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 84-50
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at Howardrank 118	Away	19%	61-73	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	vs East Tennessee Staterank 155	Home	53%	64-62	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 11% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at HowardA win: 10% · a loss: 11%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs East Tennessee StateA win: 11% · a loss: 11%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Tamia WatkinsC	1	29.0	17.0	5.0	2.0	+1.0	+1.7
Ashanti FoxG	1	28.0	12.0	1.0	3.0	−1.2	+0.5
LaNae' CorbettF	1	27.0	25.0	7.0	0.0	+1.1	+1.6
Tyana WalkerG	1	26.0	6.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.3
Kierra MorrowG	1	26.0	1.0	8.0	1.0	−3.7	−0.7
Samira KhalilG	1	18.0	9.0	2.0	4.0	−2.6	−0.1
Macayla AskewF	1	18.0	11.0	4.0	1.0	−1.8	+0.1
Sidney SmithG	1	17.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	−1.8	+0.1
Savannah WhitleyF	1	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.9
Last season's net rating: −5.8
Last season's minutes returning: 60%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 87.4 (rank 203)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 93.3 (rank 191)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 196)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Coastal Athletic Association by rating

13 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Drexel	1-0	0-0	−0.9	91.9	92.8	148
2	Monmouth	1-0	0-0	−1.5	86.8	88.4	153
3	Charleston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	89.4	92.3	172
4	Elon	1-0	0-0	−5.9	87.4	93.3	196
5	William & Mary	1-0	0-0	−6.7	86.3	93.0	202
6	Towson	0-2	0-0	−7.0	87.8	94.9	203
7	North Carolina A&T	1-0	0-0	−10.0	84.1	94.1	231
8	Stony Brook	2-0	0-0	−11.8	86.6	98.3	251
9	Hampton	0-2	0-0	−13.0	83.8	96.8	267
10	Hofstra	0-1	0-0	−13.3	82.9	96.3	274
11	Campbell	0-2	0-0	−14.9	80.8	95.6	287
12	Northeastern	0-1	0-0	−15.0	83.4	98.4	288
13	UNC Wilmington	1-0	0-0	−20.9	78.8	99.7	331