William & Mary Tribe
Makes the tournament13%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-12
Net rating−4.0Rank 183 of 363 · offence 198, defence 153
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 20-12 (14 to 25 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 12-6
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 16%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 12%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field13%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Chance of making the field, day by day
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Chowannot Division I | Home | — | — | W 89-48 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | vs Tennessee Staterank 330 | Home | 86% | 73-58 | W 78-54 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | at Virginiarank 38 | Away | 3% | 54-78 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: at VirginiaA win: 13% · a loss: 13%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassidy GeddesG | 2 | 30.5 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +1.2 |
| Skyla MastronardiG | 2 | 24.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | −1.1 | +0.5 |
| Monet DanceG | 2 | 23.0 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Natalie FoxF | 2 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 1.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 |
| Denver CarltonG | 2 | 21.5 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | +0.4 |
| Marley LongF | 2 | 20.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 2.0 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Ari MercadoG | 2 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Sophia LeGoullonG | 2 | 16.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −2.9 | −0.2 |
| Amelia BasitF | 2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Jordyn SteindlG | 2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 |
| Aisha Dos SantosF | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Dynasti PierceF | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.3%rank 219 | 43.8%rank 105 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 135 | 24.4%rank 97 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.9%rank 112 | 34.1%rank 265 | 33.2% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.6%rank 94 | 21.5%rank 266 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −0.4 points a game (they shot 29.2%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +2.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −6.7
- Last season's net rating
- −6.1
- Last season's minutes returning
- 69%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +2.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.3 (rank 198)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 91.3 (rank 153)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.5 (rank 240)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −20.6 (rank 289)
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drexel | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.5 | 91.7 | 92.2 | 148 |
| 2 | Monmouth | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.5 | 86.7 | 88.2 | 155 |
| 3 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 89.1 | 92.0 | 171 |
| 4 | William & Mary | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 87.3 | 91.3 | 183 |
| 5 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.9 | 87.2 | 93.1 | 192 |
| 6 | Towson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 87.8 | 94.8 | 202 |
| 7 | North Carolina A&T | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 83.8 | 93.8 | 234 |
| 8 | Stony Brook | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 86.4 | 98.2 | 250 |
| 9 | Hampton | 0-2 | 0-0 | −12.2 | 84.3 | 96.5 | 255 |
| 10 | Hofstra | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.6 | 82.7 | 96.3 | 273 |
| 11 | Campbell | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 80.6 | 95.4 | 286 |
| 12 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 83.4 | 98.8 | 291 |
| 13 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.9 | 78.6 | 99.5 | 332 |