Stony Brook Seawolves
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-17
Net rating−11.8Rank 250 of 363 · offence 219, defence 298
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-17 (9 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.5
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Molloynot Division I | Home | — | — | W 73-39 | |
| Thu 5 Nov | at Ionarank 324 | Away | 36% | 58-63 | W 77-63 | Wrong |
| Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET | at Niagararank 362 | Away | 88% | 71-56 | — |
Rooting guide
- Wed 11 Nov: at NiagaraA win: 2% · a loss: 2%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel LittleG · transfer from St John's | 2 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Leah PhilpottsG · transfer from Charleston | 2 | 28.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 |
| Jada CookG · transfer from Murray St | 2 | 27.5 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | −3.5 | −0.6 |
| Caitlin FrostF | 2 | 25.5 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 1.5 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Johanna PotterF | 2 | 22.0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | −3.1 | −0.3 |
| Raiane Dias Dos SantosG · transfer from Virginia | 2 | 21.5 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | −0.6 | +0.6 |
| Alex BrownF | 2 | 18.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.8 | −0.2 |
| Awa FaneG · transfer from Mississippi St | 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | +0.7 | +0.6 |
| Deb OkechukwuG · transfer from Rider | 2 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | −5.7 | −0.6 |
| Irene Rey PinedaG · transfer from Canisius | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.8 | −0.5 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.2%rank 56 | 44.1%rank 112 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.2%rank 21 | 24.0%rank 128 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 34.1%rank 98 | 32.6%rank 107 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 23.9%rank 13 | 21.4%rank 261 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.3 points a game (they shot 21.1%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- 0.0 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −15.7
- Last season's net rating
- −8.9
- Last season's minutes returning
- 36%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.5
- Change since preseason
- +3.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 86.5 (rank 219)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 98.3 (rank 298)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.6 (rank 354)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −19.6 (rank 273)
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drexel | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.4 | 91.9 | 92.3 | 146 |
| 2 | Monmouth | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.5 | 86.8 | 88.3 | 152 |
| 3 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 89.3 | 92.2 | 170 |
| 4 | William & Mary | 2-0 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 87.5 | 91.5 | 183 |
| 5 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.9 | 87.3 | 93.3 | 192 |
| 6 | Towson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.0 | 88.0 | 95.0 | 202 |
| 7 | North Carolina A&T | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 84.0 | 94.0 | 233 |
| 8 | Stony Brook | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 86.5 | 98.3 | 250 |
| 9 | Hampton | 0-2 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 83.9 | 96.9 | 268 |
| 10 | Hofstra | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.7 | 82.8 | 96.4 | 274 |
| 11 | Campbell | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 80.7 | 95.6 | 288 |
| 12 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.6 | 98.9 | 290 |
| 13 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.9 | 78.7 | 99.7 | 333 |