Towson Tigers
Makes the tournament7%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-16
Net rating−7.1Rank 203 of 363 · offence 193, defence 227
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 15-16 (9 to 21 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-8
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 8%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 7%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field7%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Mon 9 Nov: vs DelawareA win: 7% · a loss: 7%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoli KhalilG | 2 | 41.0 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.3 |
| Ava RenningerG · transfer from FDU | 2 | 36.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | +0.3 | +1.7 |
| Thalia ShepardG | 2 | 31.5 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −1.1 | +0.6 |
| Eva WilkersonG | 2 | 26.5 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Peyton WhiteF | 2 | 23.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.5 | −1.6 | +0.3 |
| Diamond WattersF | 2 | 18.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Nadeya RegalaG | 2 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −1.4 | +0.2 |
| Asya Lara BarnesG | 2 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | −3.4 | −0.2 |
| Viki MatuleviciusG | 2 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | −0.8 | +0.2 |
| Masyn MarchbanksG | 1 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.4 |
| Jillian WatsonG | 1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.5%rank 304 | 45.2%rank 257 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 21.7%rank 9 | 24.5%rank 71 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.1%rank 308 | 35.4%rank 329 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.6%rank 332 | 21.0%rank 269 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +0.7 points a game (they shot 27.6%, league 28.4%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +0.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −8.5
- Last season's net rating
- −6.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 40%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +1.5
- Change since preseason
- +1.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.7 (rank 193)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 94.8 (rank 227)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 197)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +32.0 (rank 12)
Coastal Athletic Association by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drexel | 1-0 | 0-0 | −0.9 | 91.8 | 92.7 | 148 |
| 2 | Monmouth | 1-0 | 0-0 | −1.5 | 86.8 | 88.3 | 154 |
| 3 | Charleston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.9 | 89.3 | 92.2 | 172 |
| 4 | Elon | 1-0 | 0-0 | −5.9 | 87.3 | 93.3 | 196 |
| 5 | William & Mary | 1-0 | 0-0 | −6.7 | 86.2 | 92.9 | 202 |
| 6 | Towson | 0-2 | 0-0 | −7.1 | 87.7 | 94.8 | 203 |
| 7 | North Carolina A&T | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.0 | 84.0 | 94.0 | 231 |
| 8 | Stony Brook | 2-0 | 0-0 | −11.8 | 86.5 | 98.3 | 251 |
| 9 | Hampton | 0-2 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 83.8 | 96.7 | 267 |
| 10 | Hofstra | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.4 | 82.8 | 96.2 | 274 |
| 11 | Campbell | 0-2 | 0-0 | −14.8 | 80.7 | 95.5 | 287 |
| 12 | Northeastern | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.0 | 83.3 | 98.3 | 288 |
| 13 | UNC Wilmington | 1-0 | 0-0 | −20.9 | 78.7 | 99.6 | 331 |