Iowa Hawkeyes

Women's · Big Ten Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs E Illinois · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

E Illinois0%100%Iowa

Projected 89-44 · Game page

Makes the tournament88%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 4.5

Wins the national title1%Final Four 7% · projected 23-9

Net rating+31.9Rank 14 of 363 · offence 15, defence 13

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 23-9 (18 to 27 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 4%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 4.5
A 1 seed: 3%

Makes the field88%
Round of 3279%
Sweet 1647%
Elite Eight19%
Final Four7%
Title game3%
Champion1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Towsonrank 203	Home	100%	102-61	W 73-45	Right
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	vs Eastern Illinoisrank 299	Home	100%	89-44	—
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at UConnrank 1	Away	5%	60-82	—
Thu 12 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Northern Iowarank 111	Home	99%	83-54	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 88% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at UConnA win: 89% · a loss: 88%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs Northern IowaA win: 88% · a loss: 87%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Dani CarnegieG · transfer from Georgia	1	30.0	21.0	5.0	5.0	+8.2	+5.6
Chazadi WrightG	1	29.0	14.0	4.0	1.0	+7.3	+5.0
Amari WhitingG · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	24.0	3.0	5.0	2.0	+5.6	+3.4
McKenna WoliczkoF	1	24.0	10.0	8.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.6
Taylor StremlowG	1	22.0	5.0	7.0	0.0	+7.3	+3.8
Journey HoustonG	1	20.0	5.0	4.0	0.0	+7.9	+3.7
Ava HeidenC	1	19.0	7.0	7.0	0.0	+12.8	+5.2
Layla HaysC	1	17.0	6.0	5.0	0.0	+5.3	+2.3
Jocelyn FaisonG · transfer from Georgia	1	15.0	2.0	5.0	3.0	+3.7	+1.6

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 103	43.5%rank 56	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.5%rank 291	21.7%rank 353	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.4%rank 36	32.2%rank 58	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.0%rank 94	18.6%rank 36	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.4 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.8 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +33.5
Last season's net rating: +35.6
Last season's minutes returning: 53%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +9.4
Change since preseason: −1.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.9 (rank 15)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 78.0 (rank 13)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.0 (rank 196)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.0 (rank 170)

Big Ten Conference by rating

18 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Michigan	0-0	0-0	+43.9	115.9	72.0	3
2	Ohio State	1-0	0-0	+38.9	112.2	73.3	5
3	Minnesota	1-0	0-0	+35.9	114.4	78.6	7
4	UCLA	1-0	0-0	+34.4	110.0	75.7	11
5	Illinois	1-0	0-0	+33.4	112.2	78.9	13
6	Iowa	1-0	0-0	+31.9	109.9	78.0	14
7	USC	1-0	0-0	+31.5	109.5	78.0	15
8	Oregon	1-0	0-0	+29.4	107.3	77.9	20
9	Maryland	0-1	0-0	+28.8	112.2	83.3	21
10	Washington	1-0	0-0	+26.6	105.6	79.0	24
11	Michigan State	1-0	0-0	+23.9	104.3	80.5	28
12	Nebraska	1-0	0-0	+23.3	105.1	81.8	30
13	Indiana	1-0	0-0	+18.4	102.1	83.8	41
14	Wisconsin	1-0	0-0	+12.8	102.5	89.6	67
15	Rutgers	2-0	0-0	+9.0	96.2	87.1	83
16	Purdue	1-0	0-0	+5.7	97.0	91.4	97
17	Northwestern	1-0	0-0	+4.3	95.0	90.7	103
18	Penn State	0-1	0-0	+0.9	93.0	92.1	131