Northern Iowa Panthers

Women's · Missouri Valley Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at S Dakota St · Fri 6 Nov, 7 PM ET

Northern Iowa10%90%S Dakota St

Projected 60-77 · Game page

Makes the tournament16%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 19-14

Net rating+3.1Rank 111 of 363 · offence 109, defence 125

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 19-14 (14 to 25 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-6
Wins or shares the conference title: 16%
Wins the conference tournament: 15%
Average seed if in the field: 12.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field16%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs St. Thomasrank 183	Home	77%	83-72	W 67-59	Right
Fri 6 Nov7 PM ET	at South Dakota Staterank 44	Away	10%	60-77	—
Thu 12 Nov8:30 PM ET	at Iowarank 14	Away	1%	54-83	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 16% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at South Dakota StateA win: 19% · a loss: 16%+3 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at IowaA win: 16% · a loss: 16%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Maren SchmotzerF	1	34.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	−1.5	+0.4
Callie LevinG · transfer from Iowa	1	31.0	15.0	4.0	4.0	+3.1	+3.0
Abby TuttleG	1	31.0	16.0	2.0	4.0	−1.4	+0.4
Jenna TwedtG	1	29.0	13.0	1.0	1.0	+2.6	+2.5
Elise JaegerF	1	24.0	5.0	8.0	4.0	+2.5	+2.0
Callie OaklandF	1	18.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.4
Kaylynn JanesF	1	11.0	8.0	1.0	0.0	+0.7	+0.6
Lauren WalkerG	1	8.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1	+0.3
Mya NicholsonG	1	7.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.2
Taylor FranckG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.1
Anna GreeneF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.5	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.5%rank 242	45.8%rank 303	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.2%rank 271	23.5%rank 246	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 236	35.1%rank 317	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	22.1%rank 40	18.4%rank 23	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −3.5 points a game (they shot 33.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.1 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +3.2
Last season's net rating: +4.3
Last season's minutes returning: 59%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.6
Change since preseason: −0.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.5 (rank 109)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.3 (rank 125)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.5 (rank 262)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −4.1 (rank 154)

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+10.6	100.9	90.2	73
2	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.1	93.5	90.3	111
3	Drake	1-0	0-0	+2.4	95.9	93.5	117
4	Belmont	0-1	0-0	+1.7	92.4	90.7	123
5	Illinois State	1-0	0-0	+1.4	96.0	94.7	128
6	Bradley	0-1	0-0	−2.1	89.9	92.0	165
7	UIC	1-1	0-0	−4.3	89.0	93.3	185
8	Southern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−15.3	83.2	98.5	289
9	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−15.4	84.6	100.0	290
10	Evansville	0-1	0-0	−18.8	83.3	102.1	316
11	Valparaiso	0-1	0-0	−24.7	74.7	99.4	345