Valparaiso Beacons
Next: vs Detroit Mercy · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 64-68 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 4-29
Net rating−24.8Rank 346 of 363 · offence 350, defence 315
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 4-29 (1 to 8 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 2-18
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 0%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | at Michigan Staterank 28 | Away | 0% | 46-95 | L 44-98 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET | vs Detroit Mercyrank 278 | Home | 36% | 64-68 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET | vs Culver Stocktonnot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs Detroit MercyA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allia von SchlegellG | 1 | 30.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −6.8 | −2.7 |
| Maci RhoadesG | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −3.7 | −0.7 |
| Jana NoguésG | 1 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.6 | −0.7 |
| Dani GuedetG | 1 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | −3.6 | −0.6 |
| Maddie VejsickyG · transfer from Akron | 1 | 21.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −6.1 | −1.6 |
| Denza AllenF | 1 | 21.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −3.6 | −0.6 |
| Osadebamwen Igbinedion OmoruyiC · transfer from UTEP | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | −1.1 |
| Autumn DibbG | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | −9.4 | −2.5 |
| Constanza AravenaG | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.4 | −0.3 |
| Hillary OffingF · transfer from Purdue FW | 1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.0%rank 324 | 46.4%rank 325 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.4%rank 324 | 23.7%rank 220 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.4%rank 318 | 32.6%rank 107 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.7%rank 276 | 21.3%rank 251 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- −4.3 points a game (they shot 34.8%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.3 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −24.6
- Last season's net rating
- −35.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 26%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −1.8
- Change since preseason
- −0.1
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 74.6 (rank 350)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 99.4 (rank 315)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 76.0 (rank 10)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +23.9 (rank 28)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.3 | 101.0 | 90.7 | 76 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.2 | 93.5 | 90.2 | 111 |
| 3 | Illinois State | 2-0 | 0-0 | +2.6 | 97.2 | 94.6 | 116 |
| 4 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.3 | 96.0 | 93.7 | 118 |
| 5 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 92.3 | 90.7 | 126 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −1.6 | 90.2 | 91.8 | 155 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.0 | 89.6 | 93.6 | 182 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.1 | 98.4 | 289 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.5 | 84.5 | 100.0 | 292 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 83.2 | 102.1 | 317 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.8 | 74.6 | 99.4 | 346 |