Evansville Purple Aces

Women's · Missouri Valley Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: at Lindenwood · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Evansville20%80%Lindenwood

Projected 60-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-26

Net rating−18.7Rank 316 of 363 · offence 275, defence 347

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 8-26 (3 to 13 wins)
Projected conference record: 4-16
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at DePaulrank 150	Away	10%	60-78	L 65-90	Right
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	at Lindenwoodrank 243	Away	20%	60-71	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	at Kentuckyrank 17	Away	0%	46-92	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at LindenwoodA win: <1% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Avery KelleyPG	1	35.0	10.0	5.0	4.0	−5.0	−1.8
Marina ArteroF · transfer from Louisiana	1	31.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	−4.5	−1.4
Kaiden KreinhagenG	1	31.0	7.0	2.0	2.0	−5.5	−1.9
Kelyn JohnsonG	1	29.0	11.0	3.0	4.0	−2.7	−0.3
Jayden ScottG	1	28.0	13.0	2.0	1.0	−2.6	−0.3
Mireia MustarosF	1	27.0	15.0	3.0	3.0	−2.5	−0.2
Sophia OttenF	1	14.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	−2.3	−0.1
Maria SerranoF	1	5.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−2.1	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.1%rank 47	45.7%rank 299	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.0%rank 247	23.7%rank 236	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.4%rank 284	34.6%rank 294	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.3%rank 83	21.5%rank 293	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −9.3 points a game (they shot 37.1%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −3.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −17.0
Last season's net rating: −11.0
Last season's minutes returning: 9%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.1
Change since preseason: −1.7

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.2 (rank 275)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 101.9 (rank 347)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.8 (rank 106)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −1.2 (rank 131)

Missouri Valley Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Murray State	1-0	0-0	+10.7	100.7	90.0	73
2	Northern Iowa	1-0	0-0	+3.1	93.3	90.2	111
3	Drake	1-0	0-0	+2.3	95.7	93.4	117
4	Belmont	0-1	0-0	+1.8	92.2	90.5	122
5	Illinois State	1-0	0-0	+1.4	95.9	94.5	128
6	Bradley	0-1	0-0	−2.1	89.7	91.8	163
7	UIC	1-1	0-0	−3.9	89.6	93.4	183
8	Southern Illinois	0-1	0-0	−15.3	83.0	98.3	289
9	Indiana State	0-1	0-0	−15.4	84.4	99.8	290
10	Evansville	0-1	0-0	−18.7	83.2	101.9	316
11	Valparaiso	0-1	0-0	−24.7	74.5	99.2	345