UIC Flames
Next: vs Northwestern · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ETProjected 64-67 · Game page
Makes the tournament4%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-16
Net rating−4.3Rank 185 of 363 · offence 178, defence 190
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 18-16 (12 to 23 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 10-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field4%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Ohio Staterank 5 | Away | 0% | 63-101 | L 34-81 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov | at Robert Morrisrank 263 | Away | 43% | 62-64 | W 71-58 | Wrong |
| Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET | vs Northwesternrank 103 | Home | 43% | 64-67 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET | vs Chicago Staterank 342 | Home | 95% | 78-57 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs NorthwesternA win: 4% · a loss: 4%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs Chicago StateA win: 4% · a loss: 5%−1 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu ClaytonG | 2 | 33.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 6.0 | −2.1 | 0.0 |
| Nevaeh FosterG · transfer from IU Indy | 2 | 32.5 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | −1.1 | +0.6 |
| Miyah BrownG | 2 | 30.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | −2.3 | −0.1 |
| Julia ColemanF | 2 | 22.5 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | +2.6 | +1.9 |
| Salma KhedrG · transfer from Western KY | 2 | 22.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | −0.8 | +0.5 |
| Magdalena WinterC | 2 | 20.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | −1.3 | +0.3 |
| Evyn CarrierC · transfer from Toledo | 2 | 15.5 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | +1.3 | +0.9 |
| Aileen Becerril LanderosG | 2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| Lyla KahrimanovicG | 1 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | +0.2 |
| Danyelle LondonG | 2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 |
| Mecca CrawfordF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
| Aniyah McKenzieF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.4%rank 251 | 43.8%rank 77 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 24.3%rank 280 | 25.2%rank 35 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.7%rank 28 | 35.5%rank 331 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.9%rank 254 | 21.0%rank 271 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.4 expected (+0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +2.3 points a game (they shot 25.5%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −3.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −3.8
- Last season's net rating
- −4.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 41%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −3.1
- Change since preseason
- −0.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 89.0 (rank 178)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 93.3 (rank 190)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 71.3 (rank 342)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +13.2 (rank 64)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.6 | 100.9 | 90.2 | 73 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 93.5 | 90.3 | 111 |
| 3 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.4 | 95.9 | 93.5 | 117 |
| 4 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.7 | 92.4 | 90.7 | 123 |
| 5 | Illinois State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 96.0 | 94.7 | 128 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.9 | 92.0 | 165 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −4.3 | 89.0 | 93.3 | 185 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 83.2 | 98.5 | 289 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 84.6 | 100.0 | 290 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.8 | 83.3 | 102.1 | 316 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.7 | 74.7 | 99.4 | 345 |