Murray State Racers
Makes the tournament52%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 28-7
Net rating+10.7Rank 74 of 363 · offence 53, defence 123
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 28-7 (23 to 32 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 17-3
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 60%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 43%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field52%
- Round of 326%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Southern Indianarank 106 | Away | 50% | 85-85 | W 82-67 | Wrong |
| Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET | vs Ricerank 69 | Neutral | 45% | 69-71 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov12 PM ET | vs Princetonrank 37 | Neutral | 27% | 69-77 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov12 PM ET | vs Morehead Staterank 310 | Home | 99% | 86-56 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs RiceA win: 54% · a loss: 50%+4 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs PrincetonA win: 57% · a loss: 50%+7 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Morehead StateA win: 52% · a loss: 49%+3 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halli PoockG | 1 | 30.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 | +3.5 |
| Haven FordG | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | +4.0 | +3.3 |
| Sydney HuberG · transfer from Evansville | 1 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Sharnecce Currie-JelksF | 1 | 26.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | +6.3 | +4.2 |
| Keslyn SecristG | 1 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +2.3 | +2.2 |
| Claire JohnsonG · transfer from Nebraska | 1 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | +3.4 | +2.5 |
| Katie ReedF | 1 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | +0.2 |
| Destiny ThomasG | 1 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Jaidynn AskinsF | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| Sophie TerryF | 1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.2 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.7%rank 22 | 43.2%rank 53 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.5%rank 104 | 23.7%rank 237 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.7%rank 127 | 31.5%rank 43 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 23.2%rank 21 | 18.5%rank 28 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.5 expected (+0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +5.0 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +9.9
- Last season's net rating
- +10.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 69%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- +0.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 100.6 (rank 53)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.0 (rank 123)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.5 (rank 16)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +4.1 (rank 96)
Missouri Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murray State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.7 | 100.6 | 90.0 | 74 |
| 2 | Northern Iowa | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.1 | 93.2 | 90.1 | 111 |
| 3 | Drake | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.3 | 95.6 | 93.3 | 118 |
| 4 | Belmont | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 92.2 | 90.4 | 122 |
| 5 | Illinois State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 95.8 | 94.4 | 129 |
| 6 | Bradley | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.7 | 91.8 | 162 |
| 7 | UIC | 1-1 | 0-0 | −3.8 | 89.5 | 93.3 | 183 |
| 8 | Southern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.3 | 82.9 | 98.2 | 288 |
| 9 | Indiana State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −15.4 | 84.3 | 99.7 | 289 |
| 10 | Evansville | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.7 | 83.1 | 101.8 | 316 |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 0-1 | 0-0 | −24.7 | 74.4 | 99.1 | 345 |