Morehead State Eagles
Next: vs E Kentucky · Thu 5 Nov, 7:45 PM ETProjected 65-73 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-21
Net rating−18.0Rank 310 of 363 · offence 304, defence 299
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 12-21 (7 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at Kentuckyrank 15 | Away | 0% | 58-100 | L 42-85 | Right |
| Thu 5 Nov7:45 PM ET | vs Eastern Kentuckyrank 182 | Home | 27% | 65-73 | Live | |
| Mon 9 Nov7:30 PM ET | at Vanderbiltrank 8 | Away | 0% | 46-97 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov12 PM ET | at Murray Staterank 74 | Away | 1% | 56-86 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: vs Eastern KentuckyA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at Murray StateA win: 0% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi SmithG · transfer from Montana St | 1 | 36.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Kensley FeltnerG · transfer from Belmont | 1 | 29.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.7 | −0.3 |
| Kamora MorganG · transfer from N Kentucky | 1 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −3.4 | −0.6 |
| Lanae RileyF | 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −3.5 | −0.7 |
| Allie SykesG · transfer from Presbyterian | 1 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −8.3 | −2.1 |
| Alonna PooleG | 1 | 17.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Breayah JeffersonG | 1 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.2 | −0.3 |
| Courtney SmithG · transfer from Montana St | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −3.3 | −0.3 |
| Millie PearsonF | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −5.0 | −0.4 |
| Samaria TaylorG · transfer from Furman | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −3.9 | −0.1 |
| Juliana RodgerG | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.8 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.1%rank 255 | 44.8%rank 233 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.6%rank 122 | 22.4%rank 331 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 31.8%rank 311 | 33.4%rank 221 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 18.5%rank 334 | 19.1%rank 62 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.5 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.8 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.5
- Last season's net rating
- −5.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 3%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.3
- Change since preseason
- −1.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 80.1 (rank 304)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 98.1 (rank 299)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.3 (rank 157)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +31.9 (rank 13)
Ohio Valley Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Indiana | 0-1 | 0-0 | +4.1 | 92.0 | 87.8 | 106 |
| 2 | Western Illinois | 1-0 | 0-0 | +1.5 | 93.5 | 92.1 | 126 |
| 3 | SIU Edwardsville | 1-1 | 0-0 | −10.2 | 86.1 | 96.3 | 234 |
| 4 | UT Martin | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.9 | 88.8 | 99.8 | 239 |
| 5 | Lindenwood | 0-2 | 0-0 | −11.2 | 84.5 | 95.7 | 244 |
| 6 | Eastern Illinois | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.6 | 80.6 | 97.2 | 298 |
| 7 | Tennessee State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −17.9 | 80.3 | 98.2 | 307 |
| 8 | Morehead State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −18.0 | 80.1 | 98.1 | 310 |
| 9 | Southeast Missouri State | 0-2 | 0-0 | −21.8 | 78.0 | 99.8 | 337 |