Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Next: at Morehead St · Thu 5 Nov, 7:45 PM ETProjected 73-65 · Game page
Makes the tournament8%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.8
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-12
Net rating−3.5Rank 181 of 363 · offence 113, defence 273
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 22-12 (16 to 27 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 9-7
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 8%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 8%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.8
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field8%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | at UT Martinrank 238 | Away | 63% | 79-75 | L 89-90 | Wrong |
| Thu 5 Nov7:45 PM ET | at Morehead Staterank 312 | Away | 73% | 73-65 | Live | |
| Sat 7 Nov3 PM ET | vs Radfordrank 242 | Home | 80% | 74-63 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET | vs Midwaynot Division I | Home | — | — | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET | vs Southern Illinoisrank 289 | Home | 86% | 79-64 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Morehead StateA win: 8% · a loss: 8%+1 pts
- Sat 7 Nov: vs RadfordA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: vs Southern IllinoisA win: 8% · a loss: 8%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liz FreihoferG | 1 | 40.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | +0.9 | +2.3 |
| Luna UedaG | 1 | 38.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −2.8 | −0.4 |
| Kirsten Lewis-WilliamsG · transfer from South Florida | 1 | 31.0 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | −1.0 | +0.7 |
| Kailani LindseyF | 1 | 27.0 | 15.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
| Kenleigh WoodsG | 1 | 27.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +1.1 |
| Brooke NichelsonG | 1 | 23.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | −2.4 | −0.1 |
| Michelle UgwahF · transfer from San Francisco | 1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Rylee KalocayG · transfer from Kent State | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.5%rank 41 | 45.4%rank 257 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 22.4%rank 33 | 22.8%rank 305 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 132 | 31.1%rank 36 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 24.2%rank 10 | 21.3%rank 251 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.6 expected (−0.6)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.4 points a game (they shot 18.2%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.6 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.9
- Last season's net rating
- +5.8
- Last season's minutes returning
- 42%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.9
- Change since preseason
- −1.7
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 93.2 (rank 113)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.7 (rank 273)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.3 (rank 65)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −10.8 (rank 216)
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.7 | 96.0 | 88.3 | 89 |
| 2 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.5 | 92.3 | 89.8 | 117 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 89.5 | 88.9 | 137 |
| 4 | Eastern Kentucky | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.5 | 93.2 | 96.7 | 181 |
| 5 | UT Arlington | 1-1 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 87.7 | 96.8 | 223 |
| 6 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 83.5 | 92.6 | 226 |
| 7 | Little Rock | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.9 | 84.6 | 94.5 | 232 |
| 8 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 86.8 | 99.6 | 265 |
| 9 | North Alabama | 0-2 | 0-0 | −13.4 | 78.6 | 92.0 | 271 |