Tarleton State Texans
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.0
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 16-17
Net rating−9.2Rank 224 of 363 · offence 269, defence 176
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 16-17 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-9
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.0
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | vs Arkansas-Pine Bluffrank 322 | Home | 79% | 71-60 | W 66-47 | Right |
| Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET | at TCUrank 16 | Away | 0% | 47-84 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov8 PM ET | vs Sul Ross Statenot Division I | Home | — | — | — |
Rooting guide
- No games this week
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline LylesG | 1 | 33.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | −0.1 | +1.2 |
| Olivia MedfordG | 1 | 33.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | +0.2 |
| Stephany GonçalvesG | 1 | 33.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | −1.8 | +0.2 |
| Kristian HieskillG | 1 | 29.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | −3.0 | −0.4 |
| Lucia NavarroG · transfer from Oregon St | 1 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.5 | −0.2 |
| Kendall FordG | 1 | 24.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 |
| Nyah BuntunG | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.1 | −0.1 |
| Astrid MukulumpeF · transfer from FIU | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.9 | 0.0 |
| Brooklyn KingG · transfer from Furman | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Alayna YatesF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
| Marie DiameG | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.8%rank 134 | 42.3%rank 13 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.0%rank 317 | 24.1%rank 102 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.3%rank 298 | 34.8%rank 301 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 22.4%rank 32 | 22.2%rank 329 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +7.3 points a game (they shot 8.3%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −1.1 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −10.8
- Last season's net rating
- −5.5
- Last season's minutes returning
- 12%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −0.6
- Change since preseason
- +1.6
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 83.5 (rank 269)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 92.7 (rank 176)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.0 (rank 196)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −19.4 (rank 244)
United Athletic Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abilene Christian | 1-0 | 0-0 | +7.7 | 96.1 | 88.4 | 89 |
| 2 | Central Arkansas | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.5 | 92.3 | 89.8 | 116 |
| 3 | Austin Peay | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 89.5 | 88.9 | 134 |
| 4 | Eastern Kentucky | 0-1 | 0-0 | −3.5 | 93.3 | 96.8 | 182 |
| 5 | Tarleton State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.2 | 83.5 | 92.7 | 224 |
| 6 | Little Rock | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.9 | 84.6 | 94.5 | 230 |
| 7 | West Georgia | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.0 | 86.4 | 99.5 | 269 |
| 8 | UT Arlington | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.6 | 83.0 | 97.6 | 284 |
| 9 | North Alabama | 0-1 | 0-0 | −16.4 | 78.2 | 94.5 | 295 |