TCU Horned Frogs

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Le Moyne · Thu 5 Nov, 7:30 PM ET

Le Moyne0%100%TCU

Projected 93-39 · Game page

Makes the tournament94%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.7

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 4% · projected 29-5

Net rating+30.0Rank 16 of 363 · offence 16, defence 22

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 29-5 (25 to 33 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 37%
Wins the conference tournament: 28%
Average seed if in the field: 5.7
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field94%
Round of 3276%
Sweet 1635%
Elite Eight12%
Final Four4%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Oral Robertsrank 212	Home	98%	88-58	W 99-43	Right
Thu 5 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Le Moynerank 357	Home	100%	93-39	Live
Sun 8 Nov3 PM ET	vs Tarleton Staterank 225	Home	100%	84-47	—
Tue 10 Nov5 PM ET	vs Ionarank 324	Home	100%	91-46	—
Thu 12 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs SE Louisianarank 280	Home	100%	89-48	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 94% · the next 7 days

No games this week

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Lanie GrantG · transfer from North Carolina	1	26.0	12.0	1.0	4.0	+7.9	+4.7
Jadyn WootenG · transfer from Oklahoma St	1	24.0	10.0	4.0	8.0	+9.0	+4.8
Lara SomfaiF · transfer from Stanford	1	23.0	17.0	10.0	2.0	+7.7	+4.1
Clara BielefeldG	1	22.0	6.0	11.0	6.0	+6.2	+3.3
Jessie-May HallG	1	21.0	9.0	5.0	0.0	+0.9	+1.2
Clara SilvaC	1	19.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	+11.2	+4.6
Camille WilliamsG	1	18.0	12.0	1.0	0.0	+1.0	+1.0
Bella HinesG · transfer from LSU	1	16.0	8.0	1.0	6.0	+8.7	+3.1
Sarah PortlockC	1	11.0	6.0	3.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.7
Avery HjelmstadG · transfer from Utah	1	10.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	+5.0	+1.3
Laura VilcinskasC	1	10.0	8.0	5.0	0.0	+1.2	+0.6

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.8%rank 22	43.4%rank 64	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.4%rank 91	23.3%rank 279	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	37.0%rank 4	31.6%rank 41	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.4%rank 72	19.0%rank 57	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +3.2 points a game (they shot 24.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +24.8
Last season's net rating: +37.0
Last season's minutes returning: 17%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +15.3
Change since preseason: +5.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 109.5 (rank 16)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 79.4 (rank 22)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.0 (rank 286)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −8.0 (rank 177)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.0	109.5	79.4	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.6	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.2	100.7	81.4	38
8	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+18.4	99.0	80.6	41
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.1	81.8	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.8	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.5	86.0	69
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.4	97.8	88.4	81
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	95.8	90.4	100
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.4	93.4	160
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.2	94.1	172