UCF Knights

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs South Alabama · Mon 9 Nov, 6:30 PM ET

South Alabama21%79%UCF

Projected 75-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 12-20

Net rating−2.1Rank 162 of 363 · offence 139, defence 197

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 12-20 (8 to 17 wins)
Projected conference record: 3-15
Wins or shares the conference title: 0%
Wins the conference tournament: 0%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Florida A&Mrank 339	Home	95%	79-55	W 85-56	Right
Thu 5 Nov	at Floridarank 49	Away	12%	62-78	L 65-95	Right
Mon 9 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs South Alabamarank 220	Home	79%	75-64	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Austin Peayrank 134	Home	57%	66-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 0% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs South AlabamaA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Austin PeayA win: 0% · a loss: 0%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Vittoria BlasighG · transfer from Miami	2	31.0	11.0	2.5	3.0	+0.7	+1.6
Mahogany Chandler-RobertsF	2	27.0	15.5	6.5	0.5	−0.5	+0.8
Key RosebyG · transfer from SF Austin	2	27.0	13.5	4.0	1.5	−0.3	+0.9
Caitlyn JonesG · transfer from Wake Forest	2	25.5	11.5	2.5	4.5	+0.3	+1.1
Candace KpetikouC · transfer from Miami	2	24.5	9.0	5.5	0.5	−1.0	+0.5
Jasmynne GibsonF	2	18.5	4.5	5.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.4
Nyla McFaddenG · transfer from Penn State	2	16.0	2.0	2.5	0.5	+0.1	+0.7
Mikayla JohnsonG · transfer from Pitt	1	28.0	13.0	7.0	2.0	−2.6	−0.3
Kya HurtG · transfer from Illinois St	2	12.5	1.5	0.5	2.0	−0.4	+0.4
Jabria LindseyG	1	4.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0
Felicia ScholanderG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.1
Salome Boyomo KeediF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.6	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.3%rank 14	44.0%rank 90	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.1%rank 261	23.0%rank 301	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.3%rank 299	34.4%rank 283	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.4%rank 288	24.4%rank 356	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.1 points a game (they shot 34.9%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +0.3
Last season's net rating: +2.2
Last season's minutes returning: 20%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.1
Change since preseason: −2.4

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 91.5 (rank 139)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 93.6 (rank 197)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.5 (rank 142)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −2.9 (rank 148)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.7	79.6	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.5	80.0	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.2	81.0	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.8	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.6	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.5	83.7	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.3	82.0	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.9	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.7	86.2	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	97.0	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	98.0	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	96.0	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.5	93.6	162
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.3	173