Texas Tech Lady Raiders

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 0-0, 0-0 in conference

Next: vs Charlotte · Thu 5 Nov, 6 PM ET

Charlotte5%95%Texas Tech

Projected 79-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament42%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.4

Wins the national title<1%Final Four <1% · projected 18-12

Net rating+16.8Rank 48 of 363 · offence 57, defence 48

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-12 (12 to 24 wins)
Projected conference record: 9-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 3%
Average seed if in the field: 7.4
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field42%
Round of 3223%
Sweet 165%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Thu 5 Nov6 PM ET	vs Charlotterank 191	Home	95%	79-55	Live
Mon 9 Nov7 PM ET	vs Lamarrank 162	Home	93%	76-55	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 42% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs CharlotteA win: 42% · a loss: 40%+1 pts
Mon 9 Nov: vs LamarA win: 42% · a loss: 44%−2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

0 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +16.8
Last season's net rating: +28.1
Last season's minutes returning: 13%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +2.8
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.5 (rank 57)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 83.7 (rank 48)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.9 (rank 213)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.7	79.6	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.5	80.0	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.2	81.0	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.8	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.6	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.5	83.7	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.3	82.0	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.9	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.7	86.2	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	97.0	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	98.0	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	96.0	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.5	93.6	162
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.3	173