Oklahoma State Cowgirls

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Morgan St · Fri 6 Nov, 6 PM ET

Morgan St0%100%Oklahoma St

Projected 91-41 · Game page

Makes the tournament91%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 5.0

Wins the national title<1%Final Four 3% · projected 27-7

Net rating+28.4Rank 22 of 363 · offence 20, defence 23

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-7 (22 to 32 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 38%
Wins the conference tournament: 24%
Average seed if in the field: 5.0
A 1 seed: 1%

Makes the field91%
Round of 3275%
Sweet 1638%
Elite Eight12%
Final Four3%
Title game1%
Champion<1%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Southernrank 267	Home	99%	97-63	W 81-39	Right
Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET	vs Morgan Staterank 347	Home	100%	91-41	—
Mon 9 Nov11 AM ET	vs Northwestern Staterank 255	Home	100%	86-47	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	at Tulsarank 170	Away	95%	80-58	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 91% · the next 7 days

Thu 12 Nov: at TulsaA win: 91% · a loss: 91%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Stailee HeardG	1	27.0	12.0	7.0	3.0	+5.9	+4.0
Nene NdiayeG · transfer from Rutgers	1	25.0	16.0	3.0	2.0	+3.9	+2.8
Audi CrooksC · transfer from Iowa State	1	24.0	22.0	7.0	0.0	+12.9	+6.6
Liv McGillG · transfer from Florida	1	24.0	7.0	10.0	5.0	+8.3	+4.6
Yuting DengG · transfer from Baylor	1	24.0	4.0	12.0	3.0	+5.2	+3.2
Callin HakeG · transfer from Nebraska	1	21.0	9.0	2.0	4.0	+5.4	+2.9
LA SneedG · transfer from Utah	1	21.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	+3.1	+2.0
Talexa WeeterG	1	16.0	5.0	5.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.5
Ellie BrueggemannG · transfer from Lindenwood	1	13.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+5.5	+1.8
Zoe CanfieldG · transfer from Missouri St	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.1
Addisyn BollingerG	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.1	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 98	42.8%rank 25	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.0%rank 244	23.7%rank 235	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.8%rank 66	31.9%rank 53	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 132	18.7%rank 39	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +4.5 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +25.2
Last season's net rating: +28.2
Last season's minutes returning: 16%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +17.4
Change since preseason: +3.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 108.3 (rank 20)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 79.9 (rank 23)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.2 (rank 159)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.9 (rank 205)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.0	109.5	79.4	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.3	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.0	80.8	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	103.9	80.6	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.6	82.6	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.8	79.9	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.2	100.7	81.4	38
8	Texas Tech	1-0	0-0	+18.4	99.0	80.6	41
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.1	81.8	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.7	86.8	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.5	86.0	69
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.8	86.3	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.4	97.8	88.4	81
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	95.8	90.4	100
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.4	93.4	160
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.2	94.1	172