Cincinnati Bearcats

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Penn State · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Penn State25%75%Cincinnati

Projected 76-67 · Game page

Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 9.8

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-17

Net rating+5.4Rank 99 of 363 · offence 90, defence 128

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-17 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 6-12
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 9.8
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field3%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Wed 4 Nov	vs East Texas A&Mrank 260	Home	96%	81-56	W 66-58	Right
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	vs Penn Staterank 131	Home	75%	76-67	—
Wed 11 Nov6:30 PM ET	vs Saint Joseph'srank 60	Home	40%	67-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 3% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: vs Penn StateA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs Saint Joseph'sA win: 4% · a loss: 3%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Caliyah DeVillaseeG	1	32.0	16.0	3.0	0.0	+3.6	+3.4
Jade JonesG · transfer from Houston	1	29.0	4.0	2.0	3.0	+0.6	+1.4
Sahnya JahG · transfer from SMU	1	27.0	12.0	2.0	3.0	−0.1	+1.1
Amber BullardC · transfer from Mount St Marys	1	21.0	9.0	8.0	0.0	+1.1	+1.2
Reagan JacksonG	1	19.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	+1.7	+1.3
Joya CrawfordG	1	16.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.6
Naomi BensonF · transfer from Illinois	1	14.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+2.2	+1.1
Marta FernandezG	1	13.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.3
Dee AlexanderF	1	10.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+1.7	+0.7
Jaidyn GunterG	1	9.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.2
Mary CardenC	1	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	+1.1	+0.3
Kali BarrettF	1	5.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	+0.5	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.6%rank 299	44.9%rank 234	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 110	23.4%rank 256	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.0%rank 262	33.7%rank 235	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.0%rank 94	20.8%rank 255	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.5 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.3
Last season's net rating: +7.3
Last season's minutes returning: 48%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −2.1
Change since preseason: −2.8

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 96.0 (rank 90)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 90.5 (rank 128)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.6 (rank 133)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −12.3 (rank 198)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.7	79.6	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.5	80.0	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.2	81.0	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.8	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.6	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.5	83.7	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.3	82.0	58
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.9	63
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.7	86.2	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	97.0	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	98.0	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.4	96.0	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-1	0-0	−2.1	91.5	93.6	162
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.3	173