BYU Cougars

Women's · Big 12 Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: vs Portland · Thu 5 Nov, 9 PM ET

Portland15%85%BYU

Projected 76-61 · Game page

Makes the tournament56%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.9

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 24-9

Net rating+19.3Rank 38 of 363 · offence 53, defence 31

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-9 (19 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 5%
Wins the conference tournament: 4%
Average seed if in the field: 7.9
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field56%
Round of 3229%
Sweet 164%
Elite Eight1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	vs Idaho Staterank 197	Home	97%	82-55	W 67-50	Right
Thu 5 Nov9 PM ET	vs Portlandrank 87	Home	85%	76-61	—
Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET	vs Montanarank 225	Home	98%	83-53	—
Wed 11 Nov1 PM ET	vs Bethune-Cookmanrank 353	Home	100%	86-42	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 56% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs PortlandA win: 57% · a loss: 54%+3 pts
Sat 7 Nov: vs MontanaA win: 56% · a loss: 57%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kailey WoolstonG	1	31.0	7.0	6.0	0.0	−0.3	+1.1
Delaney GibbG	1	30.0	17.0	7.0	4.0	+7.0	+5.1
Brinley CannonG	1	26.0	2.0	7.0	5.0	+4.7	+3.3
Olivia HamlinG	1	24.0	9.0	1.0	1.0	+5.6	+3.4
Sydney BenallyG	1	22.0	8.0	3.0	2.0	+3.0	+2.1
Mariam TraoreF	1	18.0	8.0	8.0	1.0	+2.7	+1.6
Bolanle YussufF	1	16.0	7.0	6.0	0.0	+5.6	+2.3
Kambree TaylorG	1	13.0	5.0	4.0	3.0	+4.5	+1.6
Liza AstakhovaG · transfer from North Carolina	1	10.0	2.0	5.0	0.0	+5.0	+1.3
Prasayus NotoaG	1	5.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	+0.4	+0.2
Stella SakalasG	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	+0.4	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.1%rank 329	44.6%rank 125	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.5%rank 118	24.2%rank 91	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.0%rank 53	32.2%rank 59	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.1%rank 350	21.9%rank 314	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −5.7 points a game (they shot 38.9%, league 28.4%)
Opponents' free throws: +1.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.7
Last season's net rating: +18.2
Last season's minutes returning: 71%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +0.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 100.8 (rank 53)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 81.5 (rank 31)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.9 (rank 113)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −6.2 (rank 166)

Big 12 Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	TCU	1-0	0-0	+30.1	109.6	79.5	16
2	Oklahoma State	1-0	0-0	+28.4	108.4	79.9	22
3	Baylor	1-0	0-0	+24.2	105.1	80.9	27
4	West Virginia	1-0	0-0	+23.3	104.0	80.7	29
5	Arizona State	1-0	0-0	+21.9	104.7	82.7	34
6	Colorado	1-0	0-0	+20.9	100.9	80.0	35
7	BYU	1-0	0-0	+19.3	100.8	81.5	38
8	Texas Tech	0-0	0-0	+16.8	100.4	83.6	48
9	Kansas State	1-0	0-0	+15.3	97.2	81.9	57
10	Iowa State	1-0	0-0	+13.9	100.8	86.8	62
11	Kansas	1-0	0-0	+12.5	98.6	86.1	70
12	Arizona	1-0	0-0	+10.5	96.9	86.4	74
13	Utah	1-0	0-0	+9.5	97.9	88.5	80
14	Cincinnati	1-0	0-0	+5.5	95.9	90.5	99
15	UCF	1-0	0-0	+1.0	90.9	89.9	131
16	Houston	1-0	0-0	−2.9	91.3	94.2	173