Idaho State Bengals

Women's · Big Sky Conference · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Westminster (UT) · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Not rated: the opponent is outside Division I.

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18

Net rating−6.1Rank 194 of 363 · offence 232, defence 149

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (9 to 21 wins)
Projected conference record: 10-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 14.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Tue 3 Nov	at BYUrank 38	Away	3%	55-82	L 50-67	Right
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	vs Westminster (UT)not Division I	Home	—	—	—
Mon 9 Nov9 PM ET	vs Cal Polyrank 313	Home	87%	71-56	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at Utah Staterank 283	Away	56%	65-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs Cal PolyA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at Utah StateA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Aspen CaldwellG	1	29.0	5.0	5.0	3.0	−1.2	+0.5
Clare ValentineG	1	29.0	11.0	6.0	0.0	−1.1	+0.6
Maggie HutkaF · transfer from Montana	1	26.0	12.0	8.0	1.0	−3.1	−0.4
Bojana RadnjicG · transfer from Santa Barbara	1	21.0	5.0	0.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.5
Jazzy WilkersonNA	1	21.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.5
Maeva GauffrenetG	1	20.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.5
Gia VukonaG	1	20.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−0.9	+0.5
Emma BryantG	1	18.0	2.0	3.0	2.0	−0.9	+0.4
Krystal ArnasonF	1	16.0	7.0	3.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.4

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.5%rank 232	43.0%rank 39	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.2%rank 268	23.6%rank 241	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.1%rank 299	35.0%rank 310	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	21.9%rank 52	18.1%rank 15	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.0 expected (0.0)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +5.3 points a game (they shot 23.7%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.2 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −5.6
Last season's net rating: +2.1
Last season's minutes returning: 27%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −0.3
Change since preseason: −0.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 85.2 (rank 232)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 91.3 (rank 149)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.2 (rank 159)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +19.2 (rank 35)

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	1-0	0-0	+16.3	98.3	82.0	53
2	Idaho	1-0	0-0	+4.0	92.8	88.8	107
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	+0.5	91.6	91.1	137
4	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.1	89.3	91.4	162
5	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−2.8	92.1	94.9	169
6	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−6.1	85.2	91.3	194
7	Northern Arizona	0-0	0-0	−9.1	87.2	96.2	223
8	Montana	1-0	0-0	−9.3	87.9	97.2	226
9	Weber State	1-0	0-0	−11.0	84.4	95.4	240
10	Utah Tech	1-0	0-0	−19.7	79.3	99.0	325
11	Portland State	0-1	0-0	−20.0	79.4	99.3	328