Montana Lady Griz
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-19
Net rating−9.3Rank 226 of 363 · offence 188, defence 284
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 14-19 (8 to 20 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs Montana Westernnot Division I | Home | — | — | W 91-45 | |
| Sat 7 Nov4 PM ET | at BYUrank 39 | Away | 2% | 53-82 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov12 PM ET | at Kansas Staterank 58 | Away | 3% | 53-79 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: at BYUA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at Kansas StateA win: 2% · a loss: <1%+2 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery WaddingtonG | 1 | 25.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | −0.6 | +0.7 |
| Dom NeslandG · transfer from High Point | 1 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | −1.8 | +0.1 |
| Kennedy MooreF · transfer from Wake Forest | 1 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | −1.5 | +0.2 |
| Jocelyn LandF | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Paige LofingG · transfer from Gonzaga | 1 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −0.5 | +0.6 |
| Hayden KautF | 1 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −2.7 | −0.2 |
| Shay ShippenG · transfer from Columbia | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 |
| Kate HolmquistG | 1 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Rae EhrmanG | 1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | 0.0 |
| Avory DeCoiteG | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.6 | −0.1 |
| Ava CossetteG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | −5.5 | −0.6 |
| Kennedy GilletteG | 1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −3.3 | −0.2 |
| Kamryn ReinkerG | 1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.4 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.6%rank 143 | 44.6%rank 134 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 154 | 23.9%rank 129 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.4%rank 141 | 33.4%rank 137 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.4%rank 139 | 20.4%rank 146 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.3
- Last season's net rating
- −13.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 62%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.9
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.8 (rank 188)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 97.0 (rank 284)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 72.5 (rank 247)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +16.3 | 98.2 | 81.9 | 53 |
| 2 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.0 | 92.7 | 88.7 | 107 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.6 | 91.5 | 91.0 | 137 |
| 4 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.2 | 91.3 | 162 |
| 5 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 92.0 | 94.8 | 169 |
| 6 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.1 | 85.1 | 91.2 | 193 |
| 7 | Northern Arizona | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 87.1 | 96.1 | 223 |
| 8 | Montana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 87.8 | 97.0 | 226 |
| 9 | Weber State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.3 | 95.3 | 241 |
| 10 | Utah Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.2 | 98.9 | 325 |
| 11 | Portland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −20.0 | 79.3 | 99.3 | 329 |