Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Next: at Arizona St · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ETProjected 54-86 · Game page
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-19
Net rating−9.1Rank 223 of 363 · offence 204, defence 266
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-19 (7 to 19 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-12
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 14.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET | at Arizona Staterank 33 | Away | 1% | 54-86 | Live | |
| Tue 10 Nov8 PM ET | vs UC Irvinerank 94 | Home | 27% | 64-73 | — |
Rooting guide
- Thu 5 Nov: at Arizona StateA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: vs UC IrvineA win: 1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 148 | 44.7%rank 141 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.9%rank 167 | 23.9%rank 138 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.3%rank 147 | 33.3%rank 147 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.8%rank 147 | 20.8%rank 154 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −9.1
- Last season's net rating
- −10.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 31%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −4.0
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.3 (rank 204)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 96.4 (rank 266)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 75.0 (rank 39)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +16.3 | 98.4 | 82.1 | 53 |
| 2 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.0 | 92.9 | 88.9 | 103 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.4 | 91.7 | 91.2 | 140 |
| 4 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.4 | 91.5 | 162 |
| 5 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 92.2 | 95.0 | 167 |
| 6 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 85.2 | 91.5 | 195 |
| 7 | Northern Arizona | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 87.3 | 96.4 | 223 |
| 8 | Montana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 88.0 | 97.3 | 227 |
| 9 | Weber State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.5 | 95.5 | 240 |
| 10 | Utah Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.5 | 99.2 | 325 |
| 11 | Portland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.9 | 79.5 | 99.4 | 327 |