Montana State Bobcats
Makes the tournament68%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 27-6
Net rating+16.3Rank 51 of 363 · offence 70, defence 35
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 27-6 (23 to 31 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 19-1
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 80%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 63%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field68%
- Round of 3216%
- Sweet 162%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game<1%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
- Sun 8 Nov: vs PortlandA win: 68% · a loss: 68%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addison HarrisF | 1 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | +5.1 | +3.4 |
| Brianne BaileyG | 1 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | +2.8 | +1.9 |
| Ella JohnsonF | 1 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | +4.9 | +2.6 |
| Isobel BunyanG | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +2.5 | +1.7 |
| Jamison PhilipG | 1 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +4.2 | +2.3 |
| Madison O'ConnorG | 1 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Dylan PhilipG | 1 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | +0.7 |
| Taylee ChirrickG | 1 | 18.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | +9.7 | +4.0 |
| Brooke FatupaitoG | 1 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +2.7 | +1.4 |
| Braeden GunlockF · transfer from BYU | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +2.8 | +0.9 |
| Ebele MbagwuG | 1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| Emma DongelmansF | 1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.7%rank 137 | 44.7%rank 132 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.8%rank 144 | 23.8%rank 126 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 33.5%rank 137 | 33.5%rank 135 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.5%rank 127 | 20.5%rank 140 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +16.3
- Last season's net rating
- +14.0
- Last season's minutes returning
- 92%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.6
- Change since preseason
- 0.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 98.4 (rank 70)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 82.1 (rank 35)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 74.9 (rank 45)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- —
Big Sky Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +16.3 | 98.4 | 82.1 | 51 |
| 2 | Idaho | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.0 | 92.9 | 88.9 | 107 |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.5 | 91.7 | 91.2 | 140 |
| 4 | Northern Colorado | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.1 | 89.4 | 91.5 | 164 |
| 5 | Southern Utah | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 92.2 | 95.0 | 170 |
| 6 | Idaho State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −6.2 | 85.2 | 91.4 | 197 |
| 7 | Northern Arizona | 0-0 | 0-0 | −9.1 | 87.3 | 96.3 | 220 |
| 8 | Montana | 1-0 | 0-0 | −9.3 | 88.0 | 97.2 | 225 |
| 9 | Weber State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.0 | 84.5 | 95.5 | 239 |
| 10 | Utah Tech | 1-0 | 0-0 | −19.7 | 79.4 | 99.1 | 324 |
| 11 | Portland State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −19.9 | 79.5 | 99.4 | 327 |