Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Women's · Big Sky Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at New Mexico St · Fri 6 Nov, 1 PM ET

Southern Utah71%29%New Mexico St

Projected 71-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament5%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.7

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 20-14

Net rating−2.8Rank 170 of 363 · offence 126, defence 232

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 20-14 (13 to 26 wins)
Projected conference record: 12-9
Wins or shares the conference title: 3%
Wins the conference tournament: 5%
Average seed if in the field: 13.7
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field5%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Redlandsnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 87-31
Fri 6 Nov1 PM ET	at New Mexico Staterank 304	Away	71%	71-64	—
Mon 9 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Park University Gilbertnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 5% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at New Mexico StateA win: 5% · a loss: 5%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ava UhrichF	1	30.0	16.0	11.0	4.0	+2.8	+2.7
Kortney DomanG	1	26.0	6.0	3.0	2.0	−1.0	+0.6
Brooklyn FelyF	1	24.0	14.0	19.0	5.0	+3.2	+2.4
Denver AndersonF	1	23.0	12.0	6.0	1.0	−1.1	+0.4
Charli KayG	1	17.0	5.0	3.0	1.0	−2.8	−0.2
Vallory KuelkerG	1	15.0	3.0	6.0	4.0	−2.9	−0.2
Amiah LewisG	1	15.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.2
Emily ScholtesF	1	14.0	5.0	9.0	1.0	−2.4	−0.1
Melicia NelsonG	1	13.0	2.0	2.0	5.0	−1.5	+0.1
Bella HasanG	1	12.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	−2.9	−0.1
Diana SorrondoF	1	11.0	17.0	7.0	1.0	−1.4	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −2.8
Last season's net rating: −3.1
Last season's minutes returning: 74%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.3 (rank 126)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 95.1 (rank 232)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.6 (rank 133)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	1-0	0-0	+16.3	98.5	82.2	52
2	Idaho	1-0	0-0	+4.0	93.0	89.0	107
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	+0.5	91.8	91.2	139
4	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.1	89.5	91.6	164
5	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−2.8	92.3	95.1	170
6	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−6.2	85.3	91.5	197
7	Northern Arizona	0-0	0-0	−9.1	87.4	96.4	221
8	Montana	1-0	0-0	−9.3	88.0	97.3	225
9	Weber State	1-0	0-0	−11.0	84.6	95.6	239
10	Utah Tech	1-0	0-0	−19.7	79.5	99.2	324
11	Portland State	0-1	0-0	−20.0	79.5	99.5	327