Idaho Vandals

Women's · Big Sky Conference · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Gonzaga · Fri 6 Nov, 9 PM ET

Idaho11%89%Gonzaga

Projected 61-78 · Game page

Makes the tournament17%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 26-9

Net rating+4.0Rank 103 of 363 · offence 119, defence 102

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 26-9 (19 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-5
Wins or shares the conference title: 14%
Wins the conference tournament: 14%
Average seed if in the field: 13.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field17%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Saint Martin'snot Division I	Home	—	—	W 71-47
Fri 6 Nov9 PM ET	at Gonzagarank 44	Away	11%	61-78	—
Mon 9 Nov2 PM ET	at Washington Staterank 138	Away	45%	68-70	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 17% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: at GonzagaA win: 20% · a loss: 17%+3 pts
Mon 9 Nov: at Washington StateA win: 17% · a loss: 17%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Hope HassmannG	1	31.0	11.0	2.0	2.0	+3.3	+3.2
Ella UriarteG	1	31.0	12.0	4.0	1.0	+0.5	+1.5
Ana PinheiroG	1	27.0	6.0	6.0	1.0	+2.9	+2.6
Brynna PukisG · transfer from Long Beach St	1	26.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	−3.4	−0.6
Keanna Salave'aF · transfer from Sacramento St	1	22.0	11.0	9.0	0.0	+2.0	+1.7
Katlin KangurG	1	20.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	+0.1	+0.8
Jacey BoeselG	1	16.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.5
Aniyah RiddellF	1	15.0	10.0	8.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.5
Alexia DagbaF · transfer from Georgetown	1	9.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	+2.0	+0.7
Reese de GrootG	1	3.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +4.0
Last season's net rating: +8.8
Last season's minutes returning: 59%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −3.4
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 92.9 (rank 119)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.9 (rank 102)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 75.3 (rank 26)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Big Sky Conference by rating

11 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Montana State	1-0	0-0	+16.3	98.4	82.1	53
2	Idaho	1-0	0-0	+4.0	92.9	88.9	103
3	Eastern Washington	0-1	0-0	+0.4	91.7	91.2	140
4	Northern Colorado	1-0	0-0	−2.1	89.4	91.5	162
5	Southern Utah	1-0	0-0	−2.8	92.2	95.0	167
6	Idaho State	0-1	0-0	−6.2	85.2	91.5	195
7	Northern Arizona	0-0	0-0	−9.1	87.3	96.4	223
8	Montana	1-0	0-0	−9.3	88.0	97.3	227
9	Weber State	1-0	0-0	−11.0	84.5	95.5	240
10	Utah Tech	1-0	0-0	−19.7	79.5	99.2	325
11	Portland State	0-1	0-0	−19.9	79.5	99.4	327