New Mexico State Aggies
Next: vs Southern Utah · Fri 6 Nov, 1 PM ETProjected 63-71 · Game page
Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 8-24
Net rating−17.2Rank 307 of 363 · offence 313, defence 281
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 8-24 (3 to 14 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 5-13
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- <1%
- Average seed if in the field
- —
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field<1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs San Diegorank 217 | Home | 46% | 75-77 | L 56-61 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov1 PM ET | vs Southern Utahrank 167 | Home | 29% | 63-71 | — | |
| Tue 10 Nov9 PM ET | at UTEPrank 286 | Away | 31% | 62-69 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: vs Southern UtahA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
- Tue 10 Nov: at UTEPA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aimée MichelF · transfer from Rhode Island | 1 | 32.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.5 | +0.4 |
| Stacy ChovinoF | 1 | 31.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | −4.9 | −1.6 |
| Talia KavokaG · transfer from Texas A&M | 1 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | −4.3 | −1.2 |
| Raina TomasickaG · transfer from South Florida | 1 | 28.0 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −2.9 | −0.4 |
| Lilyana FontchaC · transfer from Rhode Island | 1 | 28.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | −0.5 |
| Eva AgbaG · transfer from Rhode Island | 1 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.6 | −0.2 |
| Eva HamlilG | 1 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −4.6 | −0.7 |
| Aissatou Keita CissokoC | 1 | 15.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −4.5 | −0.7 |
| Imane LoubibetF | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −4.1 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 43.2%rank 314 | 44.4%rank 126 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.1%rank 307 | 23.4%rank 255 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.3%rank 271 | 33.5%rank 221 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 21.9%rank 75 | 22.4%rank 311 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.5 expected (−0.5)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.7 points a game (they shot 21.7%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −2.4 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- 0-1
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −16.3
- Last season's net rating
- −17.7
- Last season's minutes returning
- 12%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.7
- Change since preseason
- −0.9
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 79.8 (rank 313)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 97.1 (rank 281)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.6 (rank 125)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −8.5 (rank 202)
Conference USA by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Missouri State | 1-0 | 0-0 | +11.0 | 95.9 | 84.9 | 72 |
| 2 | Liberty | 1-0 | 0-0 | +8.8 | 98.0 | 89.2 | 85 |
| 3 | Middle Tennessee | 1-0 | 0-0 | +3.3 | 93.9 | 90.6 | 110 |
| 4 | Western Kentucky | 1-0 | 0-0 | −7.7 | 86.3 | 93.9 | 209 |
| 5 | Sam Houston | 1-0 | 0-0 | −10.4 | 82.3 | 92.7 | 234 |
| 6 | Jacksonville State | 1-0 | 0-0 | −11.5 | 83.6 | 95.1 | 245 |
| 7 | Kennesaw State | 2-0 | 0-0 | −12.1 | 82.4 | 94.5 | 252 |
| 8 | Florida International | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 81.9 | 94.7 | 266 |
| 9 | Delaware | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.0 | 83.8 | 100.8 | 304 |
| 10 | New Mexico State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.2 | 79.8 | 97.1 | 307 |