Sam Houston Bearkats

Women's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Houston · Thu 5 Nov, 8 PM ET

Sam Houston20%80%Houston

Projected 62-74 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.3

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 14-17

Net rating−10.4Rank 233 of 363 · offence 287, defence 179

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 14-17 (8 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 1%
Average seed if in the field: 14.3
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs McMurrynot Division I	Home	—	—	W 111-59
Thu 5 Nov8 PM ET	at Houstonrank 173	Away	20%	62-74	—
Tue 10 Nov7:30 PM ET	vs Jarvis Christiannot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at HoustonA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Hannah WallaceG · transfer from Saint Louis	1	30.0	16.0	8.0	3.0	−3.2	−0.6
Fanta KoneG	1	23.0	16.0	7.0	8.0	+1.7	+1.6
Deborah OgayemiF	1	21.0	8.0	7.0	1.0	+1.2	+1.3
Taylor SpencerG	1	21.0	17.0	4.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.2
Lanaijha JohnsonF	1	18.0	9.0	4.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.2
Mar'Cyah WillisG · transfer from Tarleton St	1	16.0	12.0	1.0	2.0	−3.2	−0.3
Ruke OgbevireG · transfer from Penn	1	15.0	12.0	0.0	1.0	−1.6	+0.2
Leanna PabstG	1	15.0	4.0	1.0	0.0	−2.6	−0.1
Esther RodellarG	1	14.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	−2.8	−0.2
Kylah McCullersG · transfer from Miss Valley St	1	14.0	4.0	0.0	1.0	−7.2	−1.3
Laila HarrisonG · transfer from Bowling Green	1	7.0	7.0	2.0	0.0	−1.7	+0.1
Alani OwensG	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.3	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −10.4
Last season's net rating: −0.7
Last season's minutes returning: 37%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −7.1
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 82.4 (rank 287)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 92.8 (rank 179)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.5 (rank 59)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	+10.9	95.9	85.0	72
2	Liberty	1-0	0-0	+8.8	98.1	89.3	85
3	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+2.8	93.9	91.2	113
4	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−7.7	86.3	94.0	209
5	Sam Houston	1-0	0-0	−10.4	82.4	92.8	233
6	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.7	95.2	246
7	Kennesaw State	2-0	0-0	−12.1	82.5	94.5	254
8	Florida International	0-1	0-0	−13.2	82.3	95.5	271
9	Delaware	0-1	0-0	−17.0	83.9	100.9	302
10	New Mexico State	0-1	0-0	−17.3	79.9	97.2	304