Liberty Flames

Women's · Conference USA · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at East Carolina · Sat 7 Nov, 5 PM ET

Liberty63%37%East Carolina

Projected 68-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament41%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 25-8

Net rating+8.8Rank 85 of 363 · offence 71, defence 110

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-8 (19 to 30 wins)
Projected conference record: 15-3
Wins or shares the conference title: 44%
Wins the conference tournament: 35%
Average seed if in the field: 12.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field41%
Round of 325%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs Frostburg Statenot Division I	Home	—	—	W 73-30
Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET	at East Carolinarank 163	Away	63%	68-64	—
Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET	at NC Staterank 23	Away	7%	58-80	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 41% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at East CarolinaA win: 41% · a loss: 41%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at NC StateA win: 45% · a loss: 41%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Ify NwaobiF	1	23.0	12.0	12.0	2.0	+4.1	+2.6
Emmy StoutC	1	23.0	14.0	5.0	2.0	+5.0	+3.0
Elisabeth AegisdottirF	1	22.0	2.0	3.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.5
Sophia GregoryF · transfer from Youngstown St	1	21.0	14.0	9.0	3.0	+5.6	+2.9
Lynn PetersC	1	21.0	4.0	6.0	2.0	−0.2	+0.7
JaKayla ThompsonG	1	17.0	9.0	3.0	2.0	+1.8	+1.2
Claudia AcinG	1	15.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	+2.2	+1.1
Emma LeonG	1	15.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	−0.4	+0.5
Kendyl SmithG	1	14.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−0.3	+0.5
Layla ScottG	1	12.0	5.0	2.0	2.0	−0.2	+0.4
Trinity HolsingerG	1	12.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	−0.2	+0.4
Maleah AlexanderG	1	5.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	−0.7	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 148	44.7%rank 141	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.9%rank 167	23.9%rank 138	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.3%rank 147	33.3%rank 147	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.8%rank 147	20.8%rank 154	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +8.8
Last season's net rating: +2.9
Last season's minutes returning: 82%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.3
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.0 (rank 71)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.2 (rank 110)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.3 (rank 334)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Conference USA by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Missouri State	1-0	0-0	+11.0	95.9	84.9	72
2	Liberty	1-0	0-0	+8.8	98.0	89.2	85
3	Middle Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+3.3	93.9	90.6	110
4	Western Kentucky	1-0	0-0	−7.7	86.3	93.9	209
5	Sam Houston	1-0	0-0	−10.4	82.3	92.7	234
6	Jacksonville State	1-0	0-0	−11.5	83.6	95.1	245
7	Kennesaw State	2-0	0-0	−12.1	82.4	94.5	252
8	Florida International	0-1	0-0	−12.8	81.9	94.7	266
9	Delaware	0-1	0-0	−17.0	83.8	100.8	304
10	New Mexico State	0-1	0-0	−17.2	79.8	97.1	307