East Carolina Pirates
Makes the tournament3%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.3
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 17-15
Net rating−2.3Rank 164 of 363 · offence 187, defence 124
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 17-15 (11 to 22 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 8-10
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 2%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 3%
- Average seed if in the field
- 13.3
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field3%
- Round of 32<1%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | vs Charleston Southernrank 340 | Home | 96% | 79-54 | W 61-45 | Right |
| Sat 7 Nov5 PM ET | vs Libertyrank 85 | Home | 38% | 64-68 | — | |
| Wed 11 Nov7 PM ET | vs High Pointrank 196 | Home | 73% | 70-62 | — |
Rooting guide
- Sat 7 Nov: vs LibertyA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
- Wed 11 Nov: vs High PointA win: 3% · a loss: 3%0 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuana CoskunG · transfer from Bucknell | 1 | 35.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −0.5 | +1.1 |
| Mildred DibuaF | 1 | 33.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.9 |
| Olivia HilliardG | 1 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −2.3 | 0.0 |
| Rylie HiteG | 1 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Tristan RickenbackerG | 1 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.4 |
| Jayla HearpG | 1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +2.4 | +1.5 |
| Kendall SneedG · transfer from Tulane | 1 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Georgia CoxF · transfer from Evansville | 1 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.4 |
| Chelsea DikeF | 1 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.7 | +0.3 |
| Ava RushG | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | −0.6 | +0.2 |
| Sara-Lee BlairC · transfer from George Mason | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +2.4 | +0.2 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 42.8%rank 331 | 43.7%rank 84 | 44.6% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 23.5%rank 114 | 26.1%rank 14 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 35.3%rank 41 | 36.1%rank 350 | 33.4% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.7%rank 270 | 21.1%rank 273 | 20.4% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 1.0 expected (0.0)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +4.2 points a game (they shot 16.7%, league 28.3%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.2 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −1.3
- Last season's net rating
- +5.2
- Last season's minutes returning
- 28%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- −2.8
- Change since preseason
- −1.0
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 87.8 (rank 187)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 90.1 (rank 124)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.9 (rank 106)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −22.9 (rank 262)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.5 | 94.7 | 82.2 | 69 |
| 2 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.4 | 99.2 | 88.7 | 76 |
| 3 | UTSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 90.7 | 86.4 | 104 |
| 4 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.7 | 90.1 | 87.4 | 114 |
| 5 | North Texas | 1-1 | 0-0 | +2.3 | 91.7 | 89.4 | 119 |
| 6 | Temple | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.4 | 93.2 | 91.9 | 128 |
| 7 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.3 | 87.8 | 90.1 | 164 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.8 | 88.3 | 91.2 | 170 |
| 9 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 87.0 | 91.9 | 187 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 0-2 | 0-0 | −6.6 | 86.8 | 93.4 | 197 |
| 11 | UAB | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.2 | 95.5 | 214 |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.5 | 84.8 | 93.3 | 218 |
| 13 | Wichita State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −14.0 | 78.2 | 92.2 | 277 |