South Florida Bulls
Makes the tournament39%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 11.2
Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 25-9
Net rating+10.6Rank 73 of 363 · offence 64, defence 100
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 25-9 (19 to 30 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 14-4
- Wins or shares the conference title
- 36%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 26%
- Average seed if in the field
- 11.2
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field39%
- Round of 326%
- Sweet 16<1%
- Elite Eight<1%
- Final Four<1%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
| Date | Opponent | Where | Win chance | Projected | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov | vs Furmanrank 236 | Home | 91% | 90-72 | W 80-54 | Right |
| Fri 6 Nov8:30 PM ET | at Belmontrank 126 | Away | 59% | 70-67 | — | |
| Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET | vs Rhode Islandrank 83 | Neutral | 54% | 68-67 | — | |
| Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET | at Floridarank 50 | Away | 23% | 69-79 | — |
Rooting guide
- Fri 6 Nov: at BelmontA win: 40% · a loss: 36%+4 pts
- Sun 8 Nov: vs Rhode IslandA win: 40% · a loss: 36%+4 pts
- Thu 12 Nov: at FloridaA win: 43% · a loss: 37%+5 pts
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah KohnG · transfer from Clemson | 1 | 33.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | +2.0 | +2.5 |
| Amourie PorterG · transfer from Winthrop | 1 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | +1.2 | +1.9 |
| Stefanie IngramG | 1 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | +3.2 | +3.0 |
| Kendall PuryearF · transfer from Purdue | 1 | 28.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | +2.3 | +2.3 |
| Fatou DiakiteF | 1 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 | +2.5 |
| Savannah CurryG · transfer from Temple | 1 | 21.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | +1.1 | +1.3 |
| Kate NovikG · transfer from DePaul | 1 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | +3.4 | +1.5 |
| Lana VukcevicC | 1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Lee TeichmanG | 1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.2 |
| Lisandra VetesinaF | 1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 46.1%rank 61 | 44.1%rank 109 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 25.5%rank 325 | 23.6%rank 236 | 23.9% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 36.9%rank 5 | 33.8%rank 243 | 33.3% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 19.6%rank 286 | 22.0%rank 292 | 20.8% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 1.0 won, 0.9 expected (+0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +3.4 points a game (they shot 22.2%, league 28.6%)
- Opponents' free throws
- +1.7 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- +8.1
- Last season's net rating
- +14.3
- Last season's minutes returning
- 24%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- +0.2
- Change since preseason
- +2.5
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 99.4 (rank 64)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 88.9 (rank 100)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 73.3 (rank 150)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- −10.5 (rank 214)
American Conference by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rice | 1-0 | 0-0 | +12.6 | 94.9 | 82.3 | 67 |
| 2 | South Florida | 1-0 | 0-0 | +10.6 | 99.4 | 88.9 | 73 |
| 3 | UTSA | 0-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 90.9 | 86.7 | 102 |
| 4 | Tulane | 1-0 | 0-0 | +2.8 | 90.3 | 87.5 | 114 |
| 5 | North Texas | 1-1 | 0-0 | +2.2 | 91.9 | 89.7 | 120 |
| 6 | Temple | 0-1 | 0-0 | +0.3 | 93.2 | 92.9 | 142 |
| 7 | East Carolina | 1-0 | 0-0 | −2.2 | 88.0 | 90.2 | 163 |
| 8 | Tulsa | 0-1 | 0-0 | −2.7 | 88.6 | 91.3 | 166 |
| 9 | Memphis | 1-0 | 0-0 | −4.9 | 87.3 | 92.1 | 187 |
| 10 | Charlotte | 0-2 | 0-0 | −6.6 | 87.0 | 93.6 | 198 |
| 11 | UAB | 1-0 | 0-0 | −8.3 | 87.4 | 95.8 | 214 |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 | 0-0 | −8.9 | 84.3 | 93.2 | 221 |
| 13 | Wichita State | 0-1 | 0-0 | −13.9 | 78.8 | 92.7 | 275 |