Florida Gators

Women's · Southeastern Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: at Chattanooga · Sun 8 Nov, 2 PM ET

Florida92%8%Chattanooga

Projected 78-60 · Game page

Makes the tournament32%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 7.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 17-14

Net rating+16.7Rank 49 of 363 · offence 28, defence 106

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 17-14 (13 to 22 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-11
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: 7.5
A 1 seed: <1%

Makes the field32%
Round of 3217%
Sweet 163%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs Bucknellrank 262	Home	95%	88-65	W 83-60	Right
Thu 5 Nov	vs UCFrank 162	Home	88%	78-62	W 95-65	Right
Sun 8 Nov2 PM ET	at Chattanoogarank 241	Away	92%	78-60	—
Thu 12 Nov6 PM ET	vs South Floridarank 75	Home	78%	79-69	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 32% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at ChattanoogaA win: 32% · a loss: 31%+1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: vs South FloridaA win: 33% · a loss: 28%+5 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kiyomi McMillerG · transfer from Penn State	2	36.0	36.5	6.0	3.0	+5.4	+5.0
Vanessa HarrisG · transfer from Rhode Island	2	30.5	17.5	8.5	2.5	+4.1	+3.5
Moriah MurrayG · transfer from Penn State	2	30.0	3.0	2.5	1.0	+2.0	+2.3
Jordan JonesG	2	24.0	3.5	6.0	1.5	−0.3	+0.8
Vivian IwuchukwuF · transfer from USC	2	20.5	13.5	2.0	0.0	+4.9	+2.7
Aurora AlmonF · transfer from Syracuse	2	19.5	3.0	7.5	1.0	+3.0	+1.9
Jade WeathersbyF	2	15.0	8.0	8.0	0.5	+5.3	+2.0
Taliyah ParkerG · transfer from TCU	2	10.5	3.0	2.5	0.0	+3.7	+1.1
Ja'Niya BroomeG	2	6.0	1.0	0.0	0.5	+0.6	+0.3
Skye OwenG · transfer from St John's	2	4.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	+1.2	+0.3
Mallory MillerF · transfer from Butler	2	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.8	+0.2
Bailey HarrisG	2	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.8	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.4%rank 12	46.4%rank 327	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.9%rank 61	21.0%rank 362	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.2%rank 46	30.2%rank 3	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 124	19.2%rank 68	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −4.3 points a game (they shot 37.5%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: 0.0 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +11.5
Last season's net rating: +21.6
Last season's minutes returning: 5%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +8.8
Change since preseason: +5.2

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 105.8 (rank 28)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.1 (rank 106)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 73.7 (rank 123)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.3 (rank 172)

Southeastern Conference by rating

16 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	South Carolina	1-0	0-0	+45.0	120.1	75.2	2
2	LSU	1-0	0-0	+40.1	117.3	77.2	4
3	Vanderbilt	2-0	0-0	+36.8	115.5	78.7	6
4	Oklahoma	1-0	0-0	+35.5	111.5	76.0	9
5	Texas	1-0	0-0	+35.0	112.3	77.4	10
6	Kentucky	1-0	0-0	+29.7	107.7	77.9	17
7	Tennessee	1-0	0-0	+26.1	108.6	82.6	25
8	Ole Miss	1-0	0-0	+25.5	105.8	80.3	26
9	Alabama	2-0	0-0	+22.0	104.3	82.3	33
10	Mississippi State	1-0	0-0	+20.6	99.7	79.0	36
11	Georgia	1-0	0-0	+17.4	102.1	84.7	45
12	Florida	2-0	0-0	+16.7	105.8	89.1	49
13	Auburn	1-0	0-0	+15.2	98.0	82.8	61
14	Texas A&M	1-0	0-0	+9.8	96.8	87.0	78
15	Arkansas	1-0	0-0	+9.1	96.0	86.8	82
16	Missouri	1-0	0-0	+7.6	99.2	91.6	90