Bucknell Bison
Makes the tournament1%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.6
Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 13-19
Net rating−12.4Rank 262 of 363 · offence 243, defence 283
Season outlook
- Projected record
- 13-19 (8 to 18 wins)
- Projected conference record
- 7-11
- Wins or shares the conference title
- <1%
- Wins the conference tournament
- 1%
- Average seed if in the field
- 15.6
- A 1 seed
- 0%
- Makes the field1%
- Round of 320%
- Sweet 160%
- Elite Eight0%
- Final Four0%
- Title game0%
- Champion0%
Schedule and results
Rooting guide
Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.
Players
| Player | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Rating | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elana WeismanG | 1 | 32.0 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | −2.2 | −0.1 |
| Tessa LiggioG | 1 | 30.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | −1.6 | +0.3 |
| Reese ZemitisG | 1 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | −1.9 | +0.1 |
| Ella KreuzerG | 1 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | −3.5 | −0.6 |
| Kaila RichardsG | 1 | 24.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | −1.2 |
| Isabella CaseyG | 1 | 22.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −2.2 | 0.0 |
| Mariah HardyF | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −1.2 | +0.3 |
| Anna KunzwilerG | 1 | 14.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | −2.5 | −0.1 |
| Peyton MusialG · transfer from UAB | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −1.6 | 0.0 |
| Grace FeeneyG | 1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.9 | 0.0 |
| Alaina DadzieF | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.9 | 0.0 |
Style and luck
Every teamThe Four Factors adjusted for opponents
| Offence | Defence | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin | 44.9%rank 127 | 46.3%rank 319 | 44.7% |
| TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin | 21.8%rank 10 | 23.4%rank 254 | 23.8% |
| Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin | 32.6%rank 285 | 33.2%rank 114 | 33.5% |
| Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin | 20.3%rank 233 | 19.0%rank 55 | 20.5% |
Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.
Luck so far
- Wins against the pre-game chances
- 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
- Opponents' three-point shooting
- +1.2 points a game (they shot 26.3%, league 28.5%)
- Opponents' free throws
- −0.5 points a game
- Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime
- None yet
Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.
Rating this season
- Preseason net rating
- −11.1
- Last season's net rating
- −16.4
- Last season's minutes returning
- 70%
- Transfers in, weighted by minutes
- 0.0
- Change since preseason
- −1.4
- Offence, points per 100 possessions
- 84.8 (rank 243)
- Defence, points allowed per 100
- 97.3 (rank 283)
- Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes
- 70.4 (rank 359)
- Schedule so far, opponents' average
- +16.7 (rank 45)
Patriot League by rating
| # | Team | Record | Conference | Net | Offence | Defence | National rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 1-0 | 0-0 | +5.2 | 93.6 | 88.4 | 101 |
| 2 | Army | 1-0 | 0-0 | +4.2 | 94.1 | 89.9 | 105 |
| 3 | Lehigh | 0-1 | 0-0 | +1.8 | 92.1 | 90.2 | 121 |
| 4 | Holy Cross | 1-0 | 0-0 | +0.2 | 87.7 | 87.5 | 141 |
| 5 | Boston University | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.2 | 84.2 | 96.4 | 256 |
| 6 | Bucknell | 0-1 | 0-0 | −12.4 | 84.8 | 97.3 | 262 |
| 7 | Loyola Maryland | 1-0 | 0-0 | −12.8 | 83.4 | 96.3 | 266 |
| 8 | Colgate | 1-0 | 0-0 | −14.7 | 82.2 | 97.0 | 286 |
| 9 | Lafayette | 0-1 | 0-0 | −17.1 | 83.8 | 101.0 | 303 |
| 10 | American University | 0-0 | 0-0 | −19.9 | 80.4 | 100.3 | 326 |