Lafayette Leopards

Women's · Patriot League · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Wagner · Thu 5 Nov, 8:30 PM ET

Wagner14%86%Lafayette

Projected 71-55 · Game page

Makes the tournament<1%From 20,000 simulated seasons

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 10-20

Net rating−17.1Rank 303 of 363 · offence 259, defence 341

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 10-20 (6 to 15 wins)
Projected conference record: 5-13
Wins or shares the conference title: <1%
Wins the conference tournament: <1%
Average seed if in the field: —
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field<1%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at St. John'srank 52	Away	7%	66-87	L 37-95	Right
Thu 5 Nov8:30 PM ET	vs Wagnerrank 355	Home	86%	71-55	Live
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs NJITrank 165	Home	30%	59-66	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: <1% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: vs WagnerA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs NJITA win: <1% · a loss: <1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Haylie AdamskiG	1	37.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	−2.8	−0.4
Carley VoceG	1	29.0	4.0	1.0	1.0	−2.7	−0.3
Tasha ChudyF	1	28.0	2.0	5.0	2.0	−4.4	−1.1
Haley PoserG	1	26.0	5.0	3.0	0.0	−5.7	−1.7
Johari HallF	1	22.0	6.0	4.0	0.0	−2.5	−0.1
Emma HeaneyG	1	16.0	5.0	1.0	0.0	−3.3	−0.3
Maddison KrugF	1	10.0	1.0	3.0	1.0	−0.8	+0.2
Sofia ValenteF	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−4.6	−0.1
Jordyn MaysF	1	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	−4.5	−0.1
Sophia BrooksF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−2.0	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.2%rank 306	47.1%rank 351	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.7%rank 337	23.2%rank 288	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	31.9%rank 306	34.3%rank 278	33.4%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	23.5%rank 15	22.5%rank 328	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.1 expected (−0.1)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −13.9 points a game (they shot 52.6%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −1.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −10.6
Last season's net rating: −14.1
Last season's minutes returning: 86%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: −6.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 83.6 (rank 259)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 100.7 (rank 341)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.6 (rank 321)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: +16.4 (rank 51)

Patriot League by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Navy	1-0	0-0	+4.7	93.0	88.3	102
2	Army	1-0	0-0	+4.2	93.8	89.6	105
3	Lehigh	0-1	0-0	+1.9	91.8	90.0	121
4	Holy Cross	2-0	0-0	−3.2	84.2	87.4	178
5	Boston University	0-1	0-0	−11.4	84.7	96.1	245
6	Bucknell	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.6	97.0	261
7	Loyola Maryland	1-0	0-0	−12.8	83.1	96.0	264
8	Colgate	1-0	0-0	−14.7	81.9	96.7	286
9	Lafayette	0-1	0-0	−17.1	83.6	100.7	303
10	American University	0-0	0-0	−19.9	80.1	100.0	327