Boston University Terriers

Women's · Patriot League · 0-1, 0-0 in conference · last L1

Next: vs Northeastern · Fri 6 Nov, 6 PM ET

Northeastern28%72%Boston U

Projected 67-59 · Game page

Makes the tournament2%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 15.5

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 15-18

Net rating−11.4Rank 244 of 363 · offence 238, defence 264

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 15-18 (9 to 20 wins)
Projected conference record: 8-10
Wins or shares the conference title: 1%
Wins the conference tournament: 2%
Average seed if in the field: 15.5
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field2%
Round of 320%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Dartmouthrank 221	Away	41%	73-77	L 49-56	Right
Fri 6 Nov6 PM ET	vs Northeasternrank 287	Home	72%	67-59	—
Tue 10 Nov6 PM ET	vs UMass Bostonnot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of the conference title now: 1% · the next 7 days

Fri 6 Nov: vs NortheasternA win: 1% · a loss: 1%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kate AllardF	1	34.0	11.0	5.0	3.0	−3.3	−0.7
Aina Grane TorresG	1	33.0	6.0	8.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.4
Rose AzmoudehG	1	29.0	6.0	6.0	0.0	−3.0	−0.4
Bella McLaughlinG	1	28.0	9.0	4.0	1.0	−1.3	+0.4
Aoibhe GormleyG	1	28.0	4.0	4.0	6.0	−2.8	−0.3
Sophia GeorgiadesG	1	19.0	10.0	5.0	4.0	−1.1	+0.3
Hildur GunnsteinsdóttirG	1	16.0	3.0	1.0	0.0	−2.2	0.0
Allison SchwertnerF	1	13.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−2.7	−0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	45.2%rank 92	44.2%rank 111	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	25.1%rank 320	24.3%rank 91	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.8%rank 62	30.8%rank 17	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.0%rank 305	18.5%rank 28	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 0.0 won, 0.4 expected (−0.4)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.2 points a game (they shot 28.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.3 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −11.7
Last season's net rating: −14.2
Last season's minutes returning: 64%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +0.3

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 84.8 (rank 238)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 96.2 (rank 264)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 70.3 (rank 359)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −8.9 (rank 182)

Patriot League by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Navy	1-0	0-0	+4.7	93.1	88.4	102
2	Army	1-0	0-0	+4.2	93.9	89.8	105
3	Lehigh	0-1	0-0	+1.9	91.9	90.1	121
4	Holy Cross	2-0	0-0	−3.2	84.3	87.5	178
5	Boston University	0-1	0-0	−11.4	84.8	96.2	244
6	Bucknell	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.7	97.1	262
7	Loyola Maryland	1-0	0-0	−12.8	83.2	96.1	265
8	Colgate	1-0	0-0	−14.7	82.1	96.8	285
9	Lafayette	0-1	0-0	−17.1	83.7	100.8	303
10	American University	0-0	0-0	−19.9	80.2	100.1	327