Holy Cross Crusaders

Women's · Patriot League · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Harvard · Mon 9 Nov, 6 PM ET

Harvard78%22%Holy Cross

Projected 56-66 · Game page

Makes the tournament10%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 14.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 18-13

Net rating−3.2Rank 178 of 363 · offence 253, defence 85

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 18-13 (12 to 23 wins)
Projected conference record: 11-7
Wins or shares the conference title: 9%
Wins the conference tournament: 10%
Average seed if in the field: 14.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field10%
Round of 32<1%
Sweet 160%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Boston Collegerank 191	Away	31%	75-82	W 64-54	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	vs Dartmouthrank 221	Home	87%	67-53	W 49-46	Right
Mon 9 Nov6 PM ET	vs Harvardrank 59	Home	22%	56-66	—
Thu 12 Nov4:30 PM ET	at Brownrank 181	Away	36%	59-63	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 10% · the next 7 days

Mon 9 Nov: vs HarvardA win: 10% · a loss: 11%−1 pts
Thu 12 Nov: at BrownA win: 11% · a loss: 10%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Hannah GriffinG	2	35.0	5.5	8.5	2.5	−1.8	+0.2
Colleen PhiriG · transfer from G Washington	2	33.5	16.0	5.0	1.0	−0.2	+1.2
Kendall EddyG	2	31.0	8.5	2.0	2.5	+0.2	+1.3
Brianna McDermottG	2	28.0	5.0	3.0	2.0	−2.7	−0.3
Janie BachmannG	2	26.0	14.0	5.5	2.5	+1.1	+1.5
Emma LizotteF · transfer from Quinnipiac	2	20.5	3.0	3.0	1.0	+0.8	+1.1
Abigail CasperF	2	18.0	2.5	3.5	0.0	−1.5	+0.2
Simone LewisF	2	8.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	−0.8	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	43.5%rank 295	41.2%rank 5	44.6%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.4%rank 33	22.8%rank 315	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	30.6%rank 355	33.5%rank 225	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	17.3%rank 360	19.1%rank 62	20.4%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.2 expected (+0.8)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.2 points a game (they shot 20.0%, league 28.3%)
Opponents' free throws: −0.9 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: 1-0

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: −3.8
Last season's net rating: +1.4
Last season's minutes returning: 38%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.5
Change since preseason: +0.6

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 84.3 (rank 253)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 87.5 (rank 85)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.1 (rank 276)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −7.3 (rank 172)

Patriot League by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Navy	1-0	0-0	+4.7	93.0	88.4	102
2	Army	1-0	0-0	+4.2	93.9	89.7	105
3	Lehigh	0-1	0-0	+1.9	91.9	90.0	121
4	Holy Cross	2-0	0-0	−3.2	84.3	87.5	178
5	Boston University	0-1	0-0	−11.4	84.8	96.2	244
6	Bucknell	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.7	97.1	262
7	Loyola Maryland	1-0	0-0	−12.8	83.2	96.1	265
8	Colgate	1-0	0-0	−14.7	82.0	96.8	286
9	Lafayette	0-1	0-0	−17.1	83.7	100.8	303
10	American University	0-0	0-0	−19.9	80.2	100.1	327