Army Black Knights

Women's · Patriot League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Brown · Thu 5 Nov, 7 PM ET

Army56%44%Brown

Projected 66-64 · Game page

Makes the tournament30%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.6

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 22-9

Net rating+4.2Rank 105 of 363 · offence 103, defence 118

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 22-9 (15 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 37%
Wins the conference tournament: 28%
Average seed if in the field: 13.6
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field30%
Round of 321%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result
Mon 2 Nov	vs St. Thomas Aquinasnot Division I	Home	—	—	W 81-28
Thu 5 Nov7 PM ET	at Brownrank 185	Away	56%	66-64	Live
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs George Masonrank 86	Home	53%	67-65	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 30% · the next 7 days

Thu 5 Nov: at BrownA win: 30% · a loss: 30%−1 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs George MasonA win: 30% · a loss: 30%0 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Kya SmithF	1	19.0	16.0	6.0	1.0	+6.7	+3.0
Camryn TadeG	1	18.0	8.0	1.0	1.0	+4.7	+2.2
Fiona HastickG	1	18.0	8.0	4.0	1.0	−0.9	+0.4
Brooke WilsonG	1	18.0	13.0	3.0	4.0	+0.5	+0.8
Taylor WilsonG	1	17.0	1.0	5.0	2.0	+1.6	+1.1
Sam TillsonF	1	17.0	3.0	2.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.5
Audrey AnneeG	1	13.0	11.0	2.0	0.0	−1.6	+0.1
Reganne ReardonF	1	13.0	12.0	2.0	2.0	+1.6	+0.9
Kelly CramerG	1	10.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	−1.5	+0.1
Landry SherrerG	1	10.0	2.0	1.0	0.0	−1.4	+0.1
Daniela MaletskyG	1	10.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.3
Julia SedoraG	1	10.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	−0.4	+0.3
Stella ChartrandG	1	7.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	−0.8	+0.2
Jane PrestonF	1	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−1.3	+0.1
Allie SwindellF	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.2
Lilly ThomanG	1	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.1
Jane RapeG	1	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.1

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.7%rank 137	44.7%rank 132	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 144	23.8%rank 126	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	33.5%rank 137	33.5%rank 133	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.5%rank 127	20.5%rank 139	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +4.2
Last season's net rating: +4.9
Last season's minutes returning: 77%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: 0.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 94.1 (rank 103)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 89.9 (rank 118)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 71.2 (rank 345)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: —

Patriot League by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Navy	1-0	0-0	+5.2	93.6	88.4	101
2	Army	1-0	0-0	+4.2	94.1	89.9	105
3	Lehigh	0-1	0-0	+1.8	92.1	90.2	121
4	Holy Cross	1-0	0-0	+0.2	87.7	87.5	141
5	Boston University	0-1	0-0	−12.2	84.2	96.4	256
6	Bucknell	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.8	97.3	262
7	Loyola Maryland	1-0	0-0	−12.8	83.4	96.3	266
8	Colgate	1-0	0-0	−14.7	82.2	97.0	286
9	Lafayette	0-1	0-0	−17.1	83.8	101.0	303
10	American University	0-0	0-0	−19.9	80.4	100.3	326