Navy Midshipmen

Women's · Patriot League · 1-0, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Temple · Sat 7 Nov, 2 PM ET

Navy45%55%Temple

Projected 69-71 · Game page

Makes the tournament34%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 13.2

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 24-10

Net rating+5.2Rank 101 of 363 · offence 106, defence 94

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 24-10 (18 to 28 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 42%
Wins the conference tournament: 32%
Average seed if in the field: 13.2
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field34%
Round of 322%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight0%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Mount St. Mary'srank 311	Away	79%	83-71	W 91-63	Right
Sat 7 Nov2 PM ET	at Templerank 129	Away	45%	69-71	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	at James Madisonrank 55	Away	15%	60-74	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 34% · the next 7 days

Sat 7 Nov: at TempleA win: 34% · a loss: 34%0 pts
Wed 11 Nov: at James MadisonA win: 36% · a loss: 34%+2 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Zoe MesuchG	1	29.0	16.0	7.0	2.0	+1.2	+1.8
Zanai Barnett-GayG	1	27.0	15.0	10.0	1.0	+6.2	+4.2
Christina LiggioG	1	20.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	−0.2	+0.7
Julianna AlmeidaG	1	18.0	8.0	4.0	5.0	+1.6	+1.3
Isa GrantF	1	18.0	12.0	4.0	2.0	−0.8	+0.4
Mary GibbonsG	1	17.0	9.0	3.0	3.0	−0.5	+0.5
Lizzie HolderF	1	14.0	9.0	4.0	2.0	−1.0	+0.3
Saran MoschellaG	1	12.0	5.0	3.0	3.0	−0.5	+0.4
Quinn BoettingerF	1	11.0	3.0	4.0	0.0	+4.1	+1.3
Kelsey RhyneG	1	11.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	−0.7	+0.3
Sidney QuinnF	1	9.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	−1.0	+0.2
Grace MinihaneG	1	8.0	8.0	2.0	2.0	−0.4	+0.3
Nia HenleyG	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	−0.3	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	47.0%rank 20	43.5%rank 55	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	22.9%rank 61	24.6%rank 57	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	35.8%rank 24	30.2%rank 5	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	20.2%rank 237	20.1%rank 125	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 0.8 expected (+0.2)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +6.8 points a game (they shot 20.7%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +0.6 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

1 game played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +2.7
Last season's net rating: +3.8
Last season's minutes returning: 78%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: 0.0
Change since preseason: +2.5

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 93.6 (rank 106)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 88.4 (rank 94)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 74.3 (rank 72)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −18.1 (rank 235)

Patriot League by rating

10 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Navy	1-0	0-0	+5.2	93.6	88.4	101
2	Army	1-0	0-0	+4.2	94.1	89.9	105
3	Lehigh	0-1	0-0	+1.8	92.1	90.2	121
4	Holy Cross	1-0	0-0	+0.2	87.7	87.5	141
5	Boston University	0-1	0-0	−12.2	84.2	96.4	256
6	Bucknell	0-1	0-0	−12.4	84.8	97.3	262
7	Loyola Maryland	1-0	0-0	−12.8	83.4	96.3	266
8	Colgate	1-0	0-0	−14.7	82.2	97.0	286
9	Lafayette	0-1	0-0	−17.1	83.8	101.0	303
10	American University	0-0	0-0	−19.9	80.4	100.3	326