James Madison Dukes

Women's · Sun Belt Conference · 1-1, 0-0 in conference · last W1

Next: at Virginia Tech · Sun 8 Nov, 6 PM ET

James Madison22%78%Virginia Tech

Projected 63-72 · Game page

Makes the tournament69%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 10.4

Wins the national title0%Final Four <1% · projected 27-6

Net rating+16.9Rank 49 of 363 · offence 69, defence 34

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 27-6 (23 to 31 wins)
Projected conference record: 16-2
Wins or shares the conference title: 72%
Wins the conference tournament: 53%
Average seed if in the field: 10.4
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field69%
Round of 3220%
Sweet 161%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four<1%
Title game<1%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	at Miami (OH)rank 80	Away	66%	82-76	L 52-59	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	vs Central Connecticutrank 358	Home	100%	85-42	W 77-38	Right
Sun 8 Nov6 PM ET	at Virginia Techrank 30	Away	22%	63-72	—
Wed 11 Nov6 PM ET	vs Navyrank 101	Home	87%	74-59	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 69% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: at Virginia TechA win: 74% · a loss: 68%+7 pts
Wed 11 Nov: vs NavyA win: 69% · a loss: 68%+1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Bree RobinsonG	2	31.0	11.0	3.0	1.0	+5.4	+4.2
Maddie LeachG	2	25.5	8.0	1.0	1.5	+0.6	+1.3
Delilah SoltysG	2	23.0	5.0	6.5	2.0	+4.4	+2.8
Zakiya StephensonG	2	21.0	12.0	1.5	3.0	+4.3	+2.5
Ja'Quoia Jones-BrownG · transfer from Long Beach St	2	21.0	6.5	4.0	1.0	+2.6	+1.8
Trynce TaylorF · transfer from Kennesaw St	2	16.5	4.5	4.5	0.0	+2.7	+1.4
Brianna McLeodF	2	15.5	0.0	2.5	0.5	+5.8	+2.2
Kinley LewisF	2	15.5	5.0	4.0	1.0	+1.1	+0.9
Trinity MooreF	2	15.0	6.5	7.5	0.0	+1.1	+0.9
Grace McDonoughF	2	9.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+7.5	+1.6
Reagan EdsellG	1	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	+1.7	+0.4
Demi GilliamF	1	5.0	4.0	2.0	0.0	+1.8	+0.4
Jemma ElebyF	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.7	+0.2

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	44.8%rank 135	41.6%rank 11	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	23.8%rank 157	25.0%rank 58	23.9%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	34.2%rank 90	32.4%rank 95	33.3%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	18.7%rank 330	23.1%rank 332	20.8%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 1.0 won, 1.7 expected (−0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: +0.2 points a game (they shot 28.1%, league 28.6%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.4 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +18.0
Last season's net rating: +22.8
Last season's minutes returning: 57%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: −5.3
Change since preseason: −1.1

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 98.5 (rank 69)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 81.6 (rank 34)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.8 (rank 206)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −10.6 (rank 215)

Sun Belt Conference by rating

14 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	James Madison	1-1	0-0	+16.9	98.5	81.6	49
2	Louisiana Tech	2-0	0-0	+6.2	94.4	88.2	93
3	Troy	2-0	0-0	+3.7	94.9	91.2	106
4	Coastal Carolina	2-0	0-0	+2.8	90.9	88.2	114
5	Marshall	1-0	0-0	+2.0	93.3	91.3	121
6	Arkansas State	0-1	0-0	+1.3	91.5	90.2	130
7	App State	2-0	0-0	+0.6	90.2	89.5	134
8	Southern Miss	1-1	0-0	−3.0	87.4	90.5	175
9	Old Dominion	2-0	0-0	−3.3	87.2	90.5	180
10	Georgia Southern	0-2	0-0	−5.3	87.2	92.5	188
11	South Alabama	1-0	0-0	−8.2	88.6	96.8	212
12	Georgia State	0-1	0-0	−9.8	89.3	99.1	231
13	Louisiana	1-0	0-0	−10.9	83.3	94.3	239
14	UL Monroe	1-1	0-0	−13.4	79.9	93.2	270