Miami (OH) RedHawks

Women's · Mid-American Conference · 2-0, 0-0 in conference · last W2

Next: vs Bellarmine · Sun 8 Nov, 1 PM ET

Bellarmine1%99%Miami OH

Projected 81-48 · Game page

Makes the tournament39%From 20,000 simulated seasons · average seed 12.1

Wins the national title0%Final Four 0% · projected 25-8

Net rating+9.2Rank 81 of 363 · offence 134, defence 40

Season outlook

From 20,000 simulated seasons

Projected record: 25-8 (20 to 29 wins)
Projected conference record: 14-4
Wins or shares the conference title: 49%
Wins the conference tournament: 34%
Average seed if in the field: 12.1
A 1 seed: 0%

Makes the field39%
Round of 324%
Sweet 16<1%
Elite Eight<1%
Final Four0%
Title game0%
Champion0%

Schedule and results

Win chance and score as predicted before each game

Date	Opponent	Where	Win chance	Projected	Result	Pick
Mon 2 Nov	vs James Madisonrank 55	Home	34%	76-82	W 59-52	Wrong
Thu 5 Nov	at Southeast Missouri Staterank 336	Away	94%	73-52	W 75-52	Right
Sun 8 Nov1 PM ET	vs Bellarminerank 343	Home	99%	81-48	—
Wed 11 Nov10:30 AM ET	vs Mount Vernon Nazarenenot Division I	Home	—	—	—

Rooting guide

Chance of making the NCAA tournament now: 39% · the next 7 days

Sun 8 Nov: vs BellarmineA win: 39% · a loss: 41%−1 pts

Early in the season other teams' results barely move a team's chances, so the list is mostly its own games; by February the bubble and conference races make other games matter.

Players

Rating: points per 100 possessions with the player on the floor, against an average player · value: points a game added against a replacement

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Rating	Value
Julianna LaMendolaF · transfer from Grand Canyon	2	36.0	14.0	7.0	3.5	+2.3	+2.9
Addison BaxterG · transfer from Butler	2	33.0	13.5	2.5	3.0	+1.2	+2.0
Amber ScaliaG	2	29.0	9.0	0.5	2.5	+2.6	+2.5
Núria JurjoG	2	26.0	2.5	4.0	3.0	+1.8	+1.9
Amber TretterF	2	24.5	10.0	9.5	1.0	+5.9	+3.6
Lucía Martínez LópezG · transfer from Xavier	2	21.0	7.5	1.5	0.0	−1.0	+0.4
Brooke ZartmanG	2	16.0	8.5	2.0	0.0	−0.6	+0.5
Dominika UllmannG	2	6.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	−0.1	+0.2
Jade OndinemeF · transfer from Indiana	2	3.5	1.0	1.5	0.0	+3.0	+0.3
Audrey BiggsG · transfer from Pitt	2	2.5	1.0	0.5	0.0	−1.9	0.0
Adela Plans BellavistaG	2	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.2	+0.1
Brooke BlumenfeldF	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+3.3	+0.1
Laia JovéG	1	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.2	0.0

Style and luck

Every team

The Four Factors adjusted for opponents

	Offence	Defence	League
ShootingEffective FG% · decides 44% of the margin	46.7%rank 26	44.1%rank 91	44.7%
TurnoversTurnover rate · decides 27% of the margin	24.5%rank 293	26.2%rank 11	23.8%
Offensive reboundsRebound rate · decides 20% of the margin	32.3%rank 301	33.8%rank 239	33.5%
Free throwsFree throws per FG attempt · decides 9% of the margin	19.9%rank 253	19.4%rank 80	20.5%

Defence is what opponents managed. For turnovers a high defence figure is good; for the others, low is good.

Luck so far

Wins against the pre-game chances: 2.0 won, 1.3 expected (+0.7)
Opponents' three-point shooting: −0.2 points a game (they shot 29.0%, league 28.5%)
Opponents' free throws: +2.7 points a game
Close games: by 5 or fewer, or overtime: None yet

Opponents' three-point shooting repeats little from one half of a season to the other (correlation 0.17), and their free throws even less (0.22), so a team living off either is likely to come back toward average. Positive numbers mean the luck has helped.

Rating this season

2 games played · starts at the preseason rating · dashed line is an average team

Preseason net rating: +6.2
Last season's net rating: +13.0
Last season's minutes returning: 53%
Transfers in, weighted by minutes: +0.8
Change since preseason: +3.0

Offence, points per 100 possessions: 91.8 (rank 134)
Defence, points allowed per 100: 82.6 (rank 40)
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes: 72.8 (rank 225)
Schedule so far, opponents' average: −3.2 (rank 151)

Mid-American Conference by rating

12 teams

#	Team	Record	Conference	Net	Offence	Defence	National rank
1	Miami (OH)	2-0	0-0	+9.2	91.8	82.6	81
2	Ball State	1-0	0-0	+7.9	97.1	89.2	88
3	Massachusetts	0-1	0-0	+0.6	91.2	90.7	138
4	Toledo	0-1	0-0	+0.2	89.4	89.2	140
5	Bowling Green	1-0	0-0	−0.9	90.1	91.1	149
6	Ohio	1-0	0-0	−2.0	87.5	89.5	161
7	Kent State	0-1	0-0	−3.1	91.3	94.4	176
8	Central Michigan	0-1	0-0	−5.4	86.3	91.7	192
9	Eastern Michigan	0-1	0-0	−10.1	86.6	96.7	232
10	Buffalo	1-0	0-0	−12.2	86.8	99.0	255
11	Western Michigan	0-1	0-0	−12.3	81.4	93.7	257
12	Akron	0-1	0-0	−13.2	87.2	100.3	270